聚酯数据周报-20251116

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products [3][4][5] - It includes supply, demand, valuation, and strategy insights for each segment - Forecasts for 2026 indicate continued growth in polyester production and potential challenges in supply - demand balance Group 2: PX Analysis Investment Rating - PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain in the first half of 2026 [15] Core View - PX is in a strong - oscillating market, with cost support from blending demand but potential downstream demand weakness [3] Supply - Chinese FJDH will expand a 70 - ton device to 100 tons by the end of the year; some overseas devices are under maintenance [3] - The domestic operating rate is at a historical high, with 10 - month output of 3.35 million tons and this week's rate at 86.8% (- 3%) [46] Demand - PTA load has been adjusted, and subsequent load will remain low, with inventory accumulation pressure easing temporarily [3][4] Valuation - PXN is at $256/ton (+15), and PX - MX Korea FOB spread is $103/ton (- 6) [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 6,600 - 7,100 [3] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] - Inter - variety: Short PXN at high levels [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Investment Rating - PTA is in a strong - oscillating market, but with limited upside space [4] Core View - Cost support exists, but supply may still be excessive after some device overhauls end [4] Supply - Some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the load has been adjusted to 75.7% (- 0.7%) [4][84] - The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [84] Demand - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; domestic weaving orders are weakening [4] Valuation - The processing fee of the 01 contract is 219 yuan/ton (- 31), and the spot processing fee is 173 yuan/ton (+ 51) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 4,500 - 4,800 [4] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage at high levels [4] - Inter - variety: Long PTA and short MEG, long PX and short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Investment Rating - MEG faces medium - term supply pressure and is in a short - term weak - oscillating state [5] Core View - Supply pressure persists, and short - term trends are weak, with a negative spread strategy for the spread [5] Supply - The overall operating rate is 72.44% (- 3.76%), and some coal - based devices have reduced loads [5][128] - Imports have been concentrated recently, and port inventories are accumulating [5][131] Demand - Domestic downstream orders are weakening, but polyester load remains relatively stable in the short term [5] Valuation - Coal - based device profit is - 299 yuan/ton (- 265), and oil - based devices continue to lose money [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 3,800 - 4,000 [5] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [5] - Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Investment Rating - The polyester industry shows stable growth, with potential for continued export - driven demand [154][155] Core View - Polyester production is growing steadily, and inventory levels are generally neutral to low [154][156] Supply - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; production in 2025 has increased year - on - year [149][155] Demand - Export demand is strong, with significant growth in various polyester product exports from January to September 2025 [155] Inventory - Overall inventory is neutral to low, and the operating resilience of filament production has increased [156] Strategy - Monitor the impact of upstream raw material prices and downstream demand on polyester production and sales