美豆周度报告-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to expected improvement in demand. It is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include a possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies after China purchases US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating sowing progress, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors include an expected purchase of 1.2 million tons of US soybeans by China this year and over 2.5 million tons per year in the next three years, a slower - than - expected sowing progress in Brazil, and the possibility of La Niña weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - US Soybeans: This week, the price of US soybeans rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 22.75 cents per bushel. Before the monthly report, the market expected it to be bullish, pushing up the price. However, the reduction of export forecasts after the release of the report dampened market sentiment. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7][9]. - US Soybean Meal: This week, the price of US soybean meal fluctuated and rose. The market was optimistic before the release of the monthly supply - demand report, but the price fell after the report. The market chose to take profits before the weekend. Future price performance needs to closely track the quantity and rhythm of China's purchase of US soybeans [11]. - US Soybean Oil: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly. China's return to the US soybean export market weakened the impetus for increased biodiesel addition, and the marginal demand for oils and fats began to deteriorate. Indonesia is expected to increase production by 10% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, and palm oil exports are poor [15]. 3.2 Supply Factors - US Drought Situation: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 61%, compared with 62% last week. In the next two weeks, there will be more rain in the US, which is unfavorable for the completion of the harvest. The temperature will be warmer [28][30][34]. - South American Precipitation: In Brazil, precipitation is low in the central - western and northern regions and high in the eastern region. In Argentina, precipitation in the soybean - producing areas is close to normal, but less rain is forecasted in the second week [35][37]. - Brazilian Sowing Progress: As of the week ending November 1, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and a five - year average of 57% [39]. 3.3 Demand Factors - US Soybean Pressing Profit: As of November 7, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.02 dollars per bushel, down from 2.15 dollars last week [42]. - US Soybean Export: In the week ending September 26, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 611,200 tons, up from 512,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.0885 million tons, up from 984,800 tons last week. The net sales this year were 870,500 tons, up from 724,400 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0 tons [44][46][48]. 3.4 Other Factors - ENSO Index: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.2, indicating the entry into the La Niña range [55]. - Soybean Planting Cost: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The planting cost in the US has decreased year - on - year, and the cost in Brazil has also decreased year - on - year [57][59][61]. - CFTC Positions: As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].