烧碱：震荡偏弱，PVC：趋势偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is "Oscillating Weakly" [1][5] - The investment rating for PVC is "Trending Weakly" [1][6] 2. Core Views of the Report Caustic Soda - High production and high inventory patterns continue, and the market keeps short - selling chlor - alkali profits. The demand from the alumina industry is unlikely to expand, non - aluminum demand has limited upside, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by the expected alumina production cut, and cost support is limited [5] PVC - The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The supply will maintain high - level operation in winter, while domestic demand is weak, and exports face policy disturbances, so the PVC market trends weakly [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. There are differences in regional loads, with rising loads in North and Northeast China and falling loads in East and Central China [5] - Demand: The alumina industry is likely to cut production due to compressed profits, and new production capacity may not lead to an expansion of caustic soda demand. Non - aluminum demand is at a rigid level and will enter the off - season. Export orders are few [5] - Viewpoint: The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by the expected alumina production cut. Cost support is limited, and it is difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly. In the long run, alumina production cuts will lead to negative feedback in the industry chain [5] - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated as 2312 yuan/ton [5] - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Pay attention to the stockpiling situation before the commissioning of new alumina production capacity. 2) Inter - period: None. 3) Inter - variety: None [5] PVC - Supply: The high - production pattern of PVC will continue in the short term. The high - production situation will persist in winter, and the supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has weakened [7] - Demand: In 2025, the competition in the PVC export market has increased, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak, and enterprises' willingness to stockpile is low [7] - Viewpoint: The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change, and exports face policy disturbances, so the PVC market trends weakly. However, the supply - side production cuts during the peak maintenance season in 2026 can be expected [7] - Valuation: The basis is strengthening, the 1 - 5 spread is weakening, and the warehouse receipts are rising. The valuation is moderately high [7] - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: The trend is weak. The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 4800 yuan/ton, and the lower supports are 4600 yuan/ton and 4500 yuan/ton. 2) Inter - period: Do not participate. 3) Inter - variety: None [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2375 yuan/ton [12] - Although the export market still has support, it is facing structural adjustment. The cumulative export volume of liquid caustic soda from January to September is 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.29%. It is expected that the annual export volume in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year and exceed 4 million tons [16][19] - The export profit is flat. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is rising, and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread is falling. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot price [24][27][35] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows rising production and falling inventory. The average utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China is 402,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.04% and a year - on - year increase of 57.23% [38][39][42] - After November, maintenance will significantly decrease. In 2025, the actual expansion of caustic soda production capacity will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there is still a lot of production capacity to be put into operation, the overall commissioning may fall short of expectations due to the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC [44][46][49] - In November, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong has been raised, providing some cost support for caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in caustic soda costs [50][54] - Among chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the production and profit of propylene oxide are rising, while the production of epichlorohydrin is falling, and the production of dichloromethane and chloroform is falling but the profit is rising [57][61][66] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production and profit are falling, and inventory is rising. There is an expectation of production cuts in the future, but the commissioning of new alumina production capacity at the end of the year will drive up rigid demand and stockpiling, especially the tank - filling demand before commissioning. The new alumina production capacity from 2025 to early 2026 is expected to be 15.4 million tons [71][75][77] - The pulp industry is expanding production capacity, and the finished paper industry has stable operation, but the terminal profit is being compressed. The viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, water treatment, and ternary precursor industries are operating stably or with rising production [79][90][94] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 spread is oscillating weakly [100] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 78.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The ethylene - based method has a utilization rate of 73.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.02%, while the calcium carbide - based method has a utilization rate of 80.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42% and a year - on - year increase of 2.98%. Maintenance in November 2025 has decreased [105][108][109] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC operation rate has decreased month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative export volume is 2.9216 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53% for the single - month export, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.63%. However, exports face pressure from Indian anti - dumping duties and BIS certification [121][127][134] - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are slightly reducing inventory, while social inventory is at a high level, and warehouse receipts are continuously rising [116][135]