能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251116

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to face pressure and remain volatile. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber is increasing, while the demand from tire manufacturers is expected to decline. The substitution demand remains high, but the overall inventory has increased. In the short - term, after a rebound, the market will return to a volatile and pressured pattern. [2][3][4] - The butadiene market is currently in a state of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end. In the short - term, it will be volatile, but in the medium - long term, it is expected to be in a weak pattern due to high supply pressure. [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Butadiene - Supply - In the current cycle (20251107 - 1113), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 11.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 million tons (+2.05%). Next week, the output is expected to reach about 11.55 million tons. [5] - From 2024 to 2025, many new butadiene production capacities have been put into operation, with a total of 38 million tons in 2024 and 86 million tons in 2025. [10][12] - There are many device maintenance plans from 2024 to 2025, which will affect the supply in different periods. [16] - Demand - In the medium - term, the high operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber maintain a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. In the short - term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, the rigid demand procurement is expected to decline. [5] - The inventory pressure of ABS is relatively large, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited growth. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand for butadiene. [5] - Inventory - From 20251107 - 1112, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to fluctuate slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.30% week - on - week, while the port inventory decreased by 2.68% week - on - week. There are still expectations of relatively concentrated ship arrivals in the later period. [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (High - Cis Butadiene Rubber) - Supply - In the current cycle, the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber has recovered. The output in this cycle was 2.80 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons (+5.92%) compared with last week, and the production capacity utilization rate was 69.92%, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 percentage points. [4] - Some devices are planned for maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply situation. [4] - Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline further. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, and the substitution demand is also high, so the overall demand side maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. [4] - Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the domestic high - cis butadiene rubber inventory was 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons (+5.22%) compared with the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises has increased. [4] - Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9700 - 10600 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - end support to NR - BR spread support. [4] - Strategy - For unilateral trading, adopt a medium - term short - selling approach on rallies, and avoid chasing short positions. The intraday trading may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games. The upper pressure is 10500 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9600 - 9700 yuan/ton. - For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is at a high level and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [4]