择时模型短期偏中性，后市或中性震荡：【金工周报】(20251110-20251114)-20251116

• The report includes multiple quantitative models for market timing, categorized into short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. Short-term models include the "Volume Model" (neutral for all broad-based indices), "Feature Institutional Model" (bullish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), and "Smart Algorithm Models" (bearish for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices) [1][11][62][63]. Medium-term models include the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" (neutral), "Up-Down Return Difference Model" (bullish), and "Calendar Effect Model" (neutral) [12][64]. Long-term models include the "Long-Term Momentum Model" (bullish) [13][65]. Comprehensive models such as "A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are bearish [14][65]. - The "Volume Model" is constructed based on trading volume data, aiming to capture short-term market sentiment [1][11]. The "Feature Institutional Model" leverages institutional trading patterns observed in the market [1][11]. The "Feature Volume Model" focuses on specific volume characteristics to predict market trends [1][11]. The "Smart Algorithm Models" utilize machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and predict market movements [1][11][62][63]. The "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" analyzes the frequency and impact of limit-up and limit-down events [12][64]. The "Up-Down Return Difference Model" calculates the difference between upward and downward returns to assess market direction [12][64]. The "Calendar Effect Model" incorporates seasonal and calendar-based effects on market performance [12][64]. The "Long-Term Momentum Model" evaluates long-term price trends to predict future movements [13][65]. Comprehensive models combine signals from multiple individual models to provide an overall market outlook [14][65]. - Evaluation of these models indicates that short-term models show mixed signals, with some bullish and others bearish, reflecting market uncertainty [1][11][62][63]. Medium-term models are generally neutral to bullish, suggesting moderate optimism [12][64]. Long-term models are bullish, indicating strong confidence in sustained upward trends [13][65]. Comprehensive models are bearish, signaling caution in the overall market outlook [14][65]. - Backtesting results for the models are not explicitly detailed in the report, but the report mentions the performance of specific indices and their alignment with model predictions. For example, the CSI 300 index showed bearish signals from the "Smart Algorithm Model," aligning with its weekly decline of 1.08% [8][11][63]. Similarly, the "Up-Down Return Difference Model" showed bullish signals, consistent with positive medium-term outlooks [12][64]. - The report also includes quantitative factor-based strategies such as "Double-Bottom Pattern" and "Cup-and-Handle Pattern." The "Double-Bottom Pattern" achieved a weekly return of 4.09%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.61% [40][47]. The "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" achieved a weekly return of 0.6%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.12% [40][41]. These factors are constructed based on technical chart patterns and are evaluated for their relative performance against benchmark indices [40][41][47].