Recodeal(SH:688800) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-16 13:52Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market continued to oscillate upward last week, with most industries closing higher. Some previously high - flying sectors such as TMT, military, and automotive significantly declined. The valuation of balanced and equity - biased convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased, and the median market price further rose to 133 yuan. Affected by factors such as low pure - bond interest rates, the continued supply - demand contradiction in convertible bonds, and the relatively dominant small - cap style after the quarterly reports, the sentiment of convertible bond assets was generally positive. It's difficult to decide on adding or reducing positions, and a trading - band mindset should be adopted. In the short term, stock selection can lean towards small - cap targets with limited previous gains and high seasonal winning rates, and pay attention to sectors like energy storage, power, semiconductor equipment and materials, photovoltaic, chemical, and pharmacy in balanced convertible bonds, or opportunities in low - premium equity - biased individual bonds [3][17] - Last week, the equity market was generally volatile. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high during the week and then pulled back below 4000 points on Friday. The TMT sector adjusted overall, while the consumer sector performed well due to the moderate recovery of price data. The bond market generally maintained an oscillation. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.81% on Friday, basically unchanged from the previous week [1][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Focus (November 10 - 14, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market was generally volatile. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high during the week and then pulled back below 4000 points on Friday. Affected by factors such as CoreWeave's downward revision of its annual revenue guidance and Kioxia's under - expected performance, the TMT sector adjusted, while the consumer sector performed well due to the moderate recovery of price data. Most Shenwan primary industries closed higher, with comprehensive (6.99%), textile and apparel (4.41%), commercial and retail (4.06%), beauty care (3.75%), and pharmaceutical biology (3.29%) leading the gains; communication (-4.77%), electronics (-4.77%), computer (-3.03%), and machinery and equipment (-2.22%) lagging behind [1][7][8] Bond Market - With the central bank's consecutive net injections, the liquidity situation eased marginally. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report on Tuesday stated that it would continue to implement a "moderately loose monetary policy". The slowdown in economic growth in October did not have a significant impact on the bond market. Although the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was obvious during the day, the bond market generally maintained an oscillation throughout the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.81% on Friday, basically unchanged from the previous week [1][7][8] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.52% for the whole week, the median price increased by 0.64%, the calculated arithmetic average parity increased by 0.25% for the whole week, and the market conversion premium rate decreased by 0.24% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, Guocheng (lithium mine), Dazhong (lithium mine), Shouhua (natural gas supply), Kaisheng (thionyl chloride), and Tianci (electrolyte) convertible bonds led the gains; Hangyu (aerospace), Cehui (strong redemption announced), Haomei (aluminum profiles), Outong (data center power supply), and Liugong Zhuan 2 (construction machinery) convertible bonds led the losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 349.353 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 69.871 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][12][15] Views and Strategies (November 17 - 21, 2025) - The convertible bond market continued to oscillate upward last week. Affected by factors such as low pure - bond interest rates, the continued supply - demand contradiction in convertible bonds, and the relatively dominant small - cap style after the quarterly reports, the sentiment of the convertible bond market was positive. The median market price has risen to the 99th percentile of historical levels, and the premium rates in each parity range are basically above the 90th percentile of historical levels. However, since the bullish equity market atmosphere and the factors favorable to convertible bonds have not changed significantly, it's difficult to decide on adding or reducing positions. A trading - band mindset should be adopted for convertible bond assets. In the short term, stock selection can lean towards small - cap targets with limited previous gains and high seasonal winning rates, and pay attention to sectors like energy storage, power, semiconductor equipment and materials, photovoltaic, chemical, and pharmacy in balanced convertible bonds, or opportunities in low - premium equity - biased individual bonds [3][17] Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (November 14, 2025), in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 48.74%, 34.95%, 28.38%, 20.3%, 13.66%, and 9.79% respectively, located at the 98%/99%, 94%/95%, 95%/97%, 91%/92%, 86%/81%, and 86%/74% percentiles since 2010/2021. In bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with parities below 70 yuan was -7.24%, located at the 0%/0% percentiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.24%, located at the 83%/79% percentiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 0.62%, located at the 80%/81% percentiles since 2010/2021 [18] Primary Market Tracking - This week (November 10 - 14, 2025), Ruike Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and there was no convertible bond listing. The issuing scale of this convertible bond is 1 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA-. After deducting the issuance fees, it plans to invest 500 million yuan in the high - frequency and high - speed connection system reconstruction and upgrade project, 200 million yuan in the smart energy connection system reconstruction and upgrade project, and 300 million yuan in supplementary working capital. As of the announcement on November 14, there will be no convertible bond issuance or listing announcements in the next week (November 17 - 21, 2025). Last week, one company (Maolai Optics) was approved for registration, one company (Huafeng Measurement and Control) passed the listing committee review, two companies (Keboda and Suzhou Tianmai) passed the general meeting of shareholders, and one company (Laite Optoelectronics) had a board of directors' plan. There were no new companies accepted by the exchange. As of now, there are a total of 95 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 144.22 billion yuan, including 5 approved for registration with a total scale of 3.76 billion yuan and 7 passing the listing committee review with a total scale of 6.47 billion yuan [26][27]