ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-11-16 13:53Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, for the first time [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons by 2030, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and acquisitions [2][4]. - The chemical products segment is projected to see steady growth, with total production expected to reach 8.702 million tons in 2024, aiming to exceed 9 million tons in the future [2]. - The company has a stable dividend history and is expected to continue providing high returns to shareholders [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, established in September 1997, is primarily engaged in coal mining and sales, coal chemical product production and sales, logistics, equipment manufacturing, and power generation [13][19]. - The company is backed by Shandong Energy Group, which holds a 52.84% stake [14][15]. Business Analysis Coal Business: Rich Reserves and Capacity Expansion - The company has a total coal resource of over 460 billion tons, with significant reserves in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia [20][25]. - The coal production capacity is steadily increasing, with a current capacity of approximately 285 million tons per year, and plans to reach 300 million tons by 2026 [28][34]. Chemical Business: Capacity Expansion and Focus on High-End Products - The chemical segment is expanding, with a focus on high-end products, and is expected to produce 8.702 million tons in 2024 [2][19]. - The company aims to enhance its chemical product offerings and increase production capacity to over 20 million tons annually in the future [23][24]. Investment Value Analysis - The company has a strong international presence, reducing reliance on a single market, and is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base [2][8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.02 billion, 15.23 billion, and 18.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7, 9.7, and 8.1 [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.27% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 28.37% in 2025, followed by a significant recovery in subsequent years [4].