豆粕：美农报告无亮点，关注美豆出口

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report is bullish but fails to provide unexpectedly strong bullish factors, leading to a decline in soybean prices. The report tightens the 2025/26 US soybean balance sheet by reducing key data such as yield, total production, and ending stocks. Although there is no super - bullish news, the tightness of the US soybean balance sheet becomes normal. If US soybean export demand recovers later, its ending stocks may further decrease. The report provides support for US soybean prices, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have limited downside space. Currently, there are no further bullish factors, and upward momentum needs a market opportunity [1][43]. - Later, attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather. After the substantial progress in China - US economic and trade consultations, if China's purchases of US soybeans resume as expected, US soybean prices may have limited downside and potential upward momentum. As of now, South American soybean - growing regions have no major weather threats. If there are no major threats later, it is necessary to monitor when the market will start trading the pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest [2][44]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 November USDA Supply - Demand Report - Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Adjustments in 2025/26 - Production: The global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 is 421.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.12 million tons compared to September. The US production is reduced by 1.3 million tons due to a slight decrease in yield, while other major producers like Brazil, Argentina, and China remain unchanged [4]. - Consumption: The global soybean consumption forecast for 2025/26 is 421.54 million tons, a decrease of 2.35 million tons compared to September. Consumption in the US decreases by 10,000 tons, Argentina by 1.7 million tons, and Brazil increases by 1 million tons, with no change in China [5]. - Export: The global soybean export volume forecast for 2025/26 is 187.97 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to September. US exports decrease by 1.36 million tons to 44.5 million tons, Argentina's increase by 2.25 million tons to 8.25 million tons, and Brazil's increase by 500,000 tons to 112.5 million tons [5]. - Import: The global soybean import volume forecast for 2025/26 is 186.41 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to September. Argentina's imports increase by 500,000 tons, with no change in China and the EU [5]. - Ending Stocks: The global soybean ending stocks forecast for 2025/26 is 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared to September, as the reduction in supply exceeds that in demand [8]. - Stock - to - Use Ratio: The global soybean stock - to - use ratio in 2025/26 is about 20.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The US ratio is 6.74%, a decrease of 0.16%. This indicates that the supply - demand balance sheets of global and US soybeans have tightened, which is bullish for soybean prices [8]. - Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Situation in 2025/26 - The November USDA report slightly increases the global soybean meal ending stocks and marginally raises the stock - to - use ratio in 2025/26, having a slightly bearish impact. The global soybean meal production is forecasted at 286.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons compared to September; consumption is 283.24 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons; export volume is 81.55 million tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons; ending stocks are 18.27 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons; and the stock - to - use ratio slightly increases. Brazil's soybean meal ending stocks increase, while those of Argentina, India, the EU, and China slightly decrease, and the US remains unchanged [33]. 2. Later Focus - US Soybean Exports: After the substantial progress in China - US economic and trade consultations, the US soybean export is expected to return to normal. From late October to early November, China made small - scale purchases of US soybeans. The November USDA report decreased the US soybean export forecast instead of increasing it, possibly because the adjustment is based on actual export data, and the progress in China - US soybean trade consultations has not yet been reflected in the actual data. Later, the actual situation of China - US soybean trade should be monitored. If China's purchases gradually resume, the USDA reports may be adjusted accordingly [38]. - South American Weather: Since September 2025, soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have successively entered the planting season. As of early November, the planting progress in both countries is slow. There are weather issues but no major threats, so the market has not yet traded on South American soybean production. According to the latest weather forecast, in mid - to - late November, the main soybean - growing regions in Brazil and Argentina will have slightly less precipitation and normal temperatures, indicating no major weather threats currently. Later, continuous attention should be paid. If there are no major threats, it is necessary to observe when the market will start trading the pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest [39].