Guoxin Securities·2025-11-16 13:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of major overseas cloud providers has significantly increased, exceeding 60% of their operating cash flow, leading to financial pressure and power shortages [2][13] - There is a persistent gap between unfulfilled orders and supply, indicating that the current CAPEX is not excessive [2][41] - The demand structure for computing power is shifting, with internal needs for model training and inference growing, alongside rapid increases in external leasing and API calls [2][34] - High-demand areas identified include advertising and SaaS, which are expected to support ongoing CAPEX investments [2][34] Summary by Sections Supply Side: Financial Pressure and Power Shortages from High CAPEX Growth - Major cloud providers are experiencing financial pressure due to CAPEX growth, which has surpassed 60% of operating cash flow [2][13] - The projected data center capacity in North America is expected to grow by 100% in 2026 and 50% in 2027, leading to significant power shortages [2][32] Demand vs Supply: Unfulfilled Orders Exceed Supply - The cumulative increase in CAPEX since the end of 2022 is still below the current unfulfilled order scale, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][41] - The report highlights that the three major cloud providers are still in a state of supply shortage [2][41] Computing Power Demand Structure: Internal Support for Model Training and Rapid Growth in External Leasing and API Calls - The internal demand for computing power is primarily for AI model training and inference, while external demand is growing rapidly through GPU leasing and API calls [2][34] - The average share of GPU leasing is around 70%, with significant growth in API calls from smaller companies [2][34] High Demand Directions: Advertising and SaaS - The report identifies advertising and SaaS as high-demand areas that will support ongoing CAPEX investments [2][34] - The overall CAPEX still requires sustained support from downstream demand, particularly from breakthroughs in AI applications [2][34]