Guoxin Securities·2025-11-16 14:57Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is expected to perform well in 2025, driven by overseas expansion expectations and rapid sales growth. The sector has shown significant excess returns in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to continuous business development (BD) overseas, excellent clinical data, and policy support. The sector is in a rapid sales growth phase, with several major products approved and included in medical insurance, leading to a surge in domestic sales and overseas revenue growth [5][6][56] - Chinese innovative drugs are demonstrating global competitiveness, with a significant increase in the number and value of outbound licensing deals. The proportion of Chinese assets in multinational corporation (MNC) drug transactions rose from approximately 5% in 2020-2021 to over 15% in the first three quarters of 2025. The total transaction amount for Chinese assets reached $47.6 billion, accounting for about 25% of MNC transactions [5][6][64] - After BD, attention should be focused on global clinical advancements and key data readouts. Since 2023, more Chinese assets have entered global registration clinical phases, with several expected to report phase III clinical data starting in 2026, potentially giving them a competitive edge through superior clinical data [5][6][64] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector's revenue has rapidly increased, with a reported revenue of 48.83 billion yuan (+22.1%) and a net profit of -460 million yuan (+71.4%) in the first three quarters of 2025. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 19.21 billion yuan (+51.0%) and a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan (+147.1%) [5][56] - The rapid growth in commercial sales of innovative drug products is attributed to the continued release of major products, medical insurance coverage, and the expansion of new indications. Additionally, overseas sales have become a key driver of revenue growth, alongside milestone payments from licensing agreements [5][56] - The investment recommendation highlights companies with differentiated innovation capabilities, suggesting a focus on Keren Biotechnology, Kangfang Biologics, Sanofi Pharmaceutical, Yingen Biotech, and Zai Lab [5][6]