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估值周观察(11月第3期):价值红利延续强势
Guoxin Securities·2025-11-16 14:56

Global Market Overview - The overseas markets experienced more gains than losses in the week of November 10-14, 2025, with moderate valuation changes. The Eurozone saw mixed performance, with France leading at +2.77%, Germany at +1.3%, and the UK slightly up by +0.16%. The Asian markets generally rose, except for the Hang Seng Tech Index, which fell by 0.42%. The US indices showed mixed results with slight adjustments. The valuation changes were mild, with only the Korean Composite Index (+1.8x) and the German DAX (-1.01x) showing significant PE changes exceeding 1x, indicating an upward revision in profit expectations [2][7]. A-share Market Analysis - In the same week, the A-share core broad indices all declined, with a slight contraction in valuations. Specifically, the CSI 500 led the decline at -1.26%, while the SSE 50 remained flat at +0.00%. The value style continued to outperform, with large-cap growth stocks leading the decline at -1.64%, while large-cap value stocks rose by +1.44%. The CSI 2000, representing small-cap stocks, also performed well with a +0.89% increase. Most valuations contracted slightly alongside stock prices, with only the CSI 2000 showing a PE change exceeding 1x at +1.38x [2][27]. Industry Performance - The week saw mixed performance across primary industries, with the comprehensive sector leading gains at +6.99%. The TMT sector collectively retreated, with electronics and communications leading the decline at -4.77%. Downstream consumption and large financial sectors all rose, with retail and textile sectors increasing by over 4%. Valuations adjusted with stock prices, where electronics, computers, and communications saw PE contractions exceeding 2x, while the comprehensive sector's PE expanded significantly by 3.35x. Downstream consumption sectors like retail, social services, beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals all experienced PE expansions exceeding 1x [2][51]. Valuation Comparisons - The downstream consumption sector shows superior valuation attractiveness. Analyzing PE, PB, PS, and PCF percentiles, the TMT sector's valuations have declined with stock price adjustments. The upstream resource sectors, represented by basic chemicals and oil & gas, are at high valuation levels, with rolling 1-year valuation percentiles averaging above 99% and 3-year averages above 96%. The valuation percentiles for non-ferrous metals and coal also exceed 94% for both 1-year and 3-year periods. In contrast, the downstream consumption sectors, including home appliances, beauty care, and food & beverage, maintain high valuation attractiveness, with all three industries' valuation percentiles averaging below 75% [2][53].