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信用周观察系列:哪些品种还有性价比
HUAXI Securities·2025-11-16 14:54
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market is in a pricing dilemma with long - term interest rates remaining flat, making band - trading difficult. Investors are turning to coupon assets. Seeking relatively cost - effective assets may be a better choice[1][10] - Focus on varieties and entities with large yield increases but slow repair processes during the July - November bond market adjustment - repair cycle, as they may experience a catch - up rally[2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Market Performance Analysis - From November 10 - 14, interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, and the yield curve flattened. General credit bonds performed weakly with most credit spreads widening slightly. Bank secondary and perpetual (two - Yong) bonds had a catch - up rally, outperforming general credit bonds[9] - For general credit bonds, medium - to high - grade long - term varieties were severely affected and repaired slowly during the bond market adjustment. From July 7 to November 14, the yields of 7 - 15 - year AAA and AA+ urban investment bonds increased significantly by 25 - 40bp, and credit spreads widened by 6 - 10bp, with 30 - year spreads widening by 12 - 14bp[2][10] - Some private and perpetual bonds had weaker performance than ordinary bonds during the adjustment - repair cycle, with higher current variety spreads. There are opportunities to obtain higher coupons by sacrificing some liquidity[3][14] 3.2 Investment Opportunity Recommendations - For general credit bonds, pay attention to medium - to high - grade long - term varieties and some issuers of 2 - 3 - year or 3 - 5 - year credit bonds with large yield adjustments[2][12] - Focus on entities with excess returns in perpetual bonds. 37 entities were screened based on certain criteria such as implicit rating, bond stock, average yield, and variety spread[3][16] - Bank two - Yong bonds still have cost - effectiveness compared to general credit bonds. However, they face challenges due to the unimplemented new regulations on fund sales fees and are more suitable for accounts with relatively stable liability ends or those insensitive to drawdowns[3][18] - Three - year medium - to high - grade securities company subordinated bonds have a coupon advantage over the same - term and same - grade bank secondary capital bonds, suitable for accounts with low liquidity requirements[5][20] 3.3 Specific Bond Type Analysis 3.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - From November 1 - 16, 2025, urban investment bond net financing was negative, and the outflow scale increased. The issuance rate dropped significantly to a historical low. In the secondary market, the 3 - 5 - year market cooled, and credit spreads widened slightly[26][27] 3.3.2 Industrial Bonds - In November, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The 3 - 5 - year issuance proportion increased significantly, and the issuance rate declined across the board, with a larger decline in the 3 - 5 - year segment[34][35]