Guotou Securities·2025-11-16 15:15Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the innovative drug market is expected to drive continuous valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical sector, supported by improving fundamentals and overseas expansion catalysts [2][7][10] - The pharmaceutical sector's overall performance shows a slight revenue growth of 0.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 12.87% [4][3] - The report highlights that the revenue of domestic biotech innovative drug companies reached 52.13 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14% year-on-year increase, indicating that commercialization is entering a rapid growth phase [21][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the total overseas licensing business development (BD) transaction amount in the innovative drug sector exceeded 100 billion USD in 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [27][30][33] - The report emphasizes that the innovative drug sector's valuation remains at a historically low level, with the median PE ratio for the pharmaceutical sector at 34.21 times, suggesting potential for further recovery [10][57] - Institutional enthusiasm for the biotech innovative drug sector is reflected in the increasing proportion of holdings, with the weight of all funds in the biotech sector rising to 2.66% in Q3 2025 [11][35][38] Group 3 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Sanofi Biopharma, which has licensed a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody to Pfizer, indicating high certainty for future overseas sales growth [63] - The report also highlights the potential of Union Pharmaceuticals' UBT251, which has shown promising results in weight loss and is licensed to Novo Nordisk [63] - The report suggests that Kolon Biotech's TROP2 ADC, licensed to Merck, has demonstrated excellent data and is expected to have significant market potential [63]