地方债周度跟踪：新增债发行提速，减国债利差表现分化-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly this period, but are expected to decline next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds shortened this period. The issuance progress of new bonds is still slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased. The spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 285.066 billion yuan/242.792 billion yuan (last period was 91.607 billion yuan/-33.641 billion yuan), and next period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23), the expected issuance/net financing is 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 13.90 years, shorter than 14.57 years in the previous period. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 87.8% and 93.7% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 90.3% and 95.6%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.9%/97.2% and 90.9%/98.0%, and in 2023 it was 91.6%/94.4% and 94.3%/95.9%. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan (701.6 billion yuan in November and 11.7 billion yuan in December), including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds (343.9 billion yuan in November and 3.6 billion yuan in December). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 1897.6 billion yuan and 71.8 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 2405.4 billion yuan and 106.8 billion yuan. [3] - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 4 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 5.1 billion yuan and 0.28 billion yuan respectively. As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1291.8 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1996.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.8%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 101.6 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of November 14, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 15.60BP and 22.19BP respectively, narrowing by 4.98BP and widening by 2.00BP compared with November 7, 2025, and were at the 25.80% and 87.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.71%, a decrease compared with 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Jilin, and Qingdao were better than the national average. [3] - Currently, the spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. [3]