高盛；周末宏观电话会议

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong profit growth for S&P 500 companies, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in Q3 2025, despite macroeconomic concerns [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown negatively impacted Q4 economic growth by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 percentage points, but a rebound to 3.1% growth is expected in Q1 due to government spending [1][2]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA may lead to partial overturning of tariffs, although significant presidential power remains [1][4]. - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, although uncertainty remains [1][5]. - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with projections for large-scale data centers raised from $470 billion to $530 billion [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The government shutdown has caused a drag on economic growth, but a rebound is expected due to increased government spending [1][2]. - The labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][10]. Tariff and Legal Considerations - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs could reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policy, with implications for specific countries [4][1]. Corporate Performance - S&P 500 companies showed strong profit growth, with a notable increase in guidance for Q4, indicating positive market expectations [7][8]. - AI companies are financially robust, with strong cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them well for future growth despite market volatility [9][18]. Currency and Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually depreciate as economic performance weakens, influenced by labor market data and potential interest rate cuts [10][12]. - Emerging market currencies may perform better if the U.S. economy underperforms, with the potential for a stable yuan to support the Asian region [12][10].