高盛：人工智能交易还有更大上升空间

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector remains positive, suggesting further investment opportunities despite significant growth already observed [1]. Core Insights - The global economic team estimates the potential capital gains value of AI to be as high as $8 trillion, indicating that further investment is justified [3]. - The current AI investment cycle is believed to be in its early stages, with the market value of AI-related companies having surpassed the $8 trillion estimate since the end of 2022 [3]. - There are no significant signs of a macro bubble similar to the 1990s tech bubble, as the increase in AI-driven investment spending has been modest and short-lived [6]. - The financial health of corporate sectors is stable, with a steady U.S. current account deficit and narrow credit spreads, suggesting a lack of immediate risk for market adjustments [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to remain stable in the coming months, with no recession anticipated, and the Federal Reserve likely to adopt more accommodative policies [9]. - By early 2026, the growth outlook is expected to be more optimistic, which should positively impact stock market performance [9]. Labor Market and Policy Considerations - The labor market will be a key macro issue to monitor in 2026, as its stability could reduce expectations of downside risks [10]. - The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair and the composition of the 2026 FOMC will also be critical in determining policy direction and uncertainty [10]. Investment Strategies - Protective positions or strategies that capture upside exposure while limiting downside risk are recommended to navigate potential market volatility [7]. - If economic prosperity continues and debt usage increases, there may be an expansion in credit spreads, providing exposure to credit issuance stories and downside risks in the real economy [7].