Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CALB Group Co Ltd with a target price of HK$33.40, indicating an expected share price return of 3.3% [6]. Core Insights - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is set at 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target based on year-to-date trends and production plans for the last two months of the year. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, comprising 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2][3]. - The completed battery capacity is projected to be over 160GWh by the end of 2025 and over 230GWh by the end of 2026, with effective capacities expected to be 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. - Demand for ESS batteries is strong, with CALB operating at full capacity in 2025. The company anticipates sustained capacity amid shipment bottlenecks and strong demand growth from both existing and new clients in 2026-27E [3]. - Management expects a slight increase in the average selling price (ASP) of ESS batteries due to tight supply, but significant increases are unlikely. Margins in the ESS battery segment are expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets and higher-margin ESS system shipments [4]. - For EV batteries, effective capacity is expected to reach 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E. Shipment growth for EV batteries is anticipated to remain strong, with improved margins expected as shipments to international OEMs increase [5]. Summary by Sections Battery Shipment - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, including 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2]. Battery Capacity - Completed battery capacity is expected to be over 160GWh in 2025 and over 230GWh in 2026, with effective capacities projected at 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. ESS Battery - ESS battery demand is strong, with full utilization expected in 2025. Capacity is anticipated to be sustained in 2026 amid strong demand growth [3]. ESS Battery Price and Margin - Management expects a slight increase in ESS battery ASP due to tight supply, with margins expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets [4]. EV Battery - Effective capacity for EV batteries is projected at 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E, with strong shipment growth and improved margins expected [5].
中创新航_花旗 2025 中国会议新动态_2026 年销量增长预计保持强劲