中银晨会聚焦-20251117
Bank of China Securities·2025-11-17 00:23

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the real estate market, with October sales area dropping by 18.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2009 [19][20] - The total investment in real estate development for October was 585.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, which is the largest monthly decline since December 2022 [19][23] - New construction area also saw a substantial decline of 29.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [19][23] Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that the financing demand in the real economy remains weak, with October's social financing scale at 816.1 billion, down 595.9 billion from the previous year [6][9] - Industrial value-added growth for October was reported at 4.9%, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% [13][14] - Consumer retail sales in October reached 46.291 trillion, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, driven by the holiday season [7][15] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average selling price of residential properties in October decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, despite a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [20][27] - The inventory pressure in the housing market remains significant, with the broad inventory area at 1.55 billion square meters, indicating a 25.5-month depleting cycle [22] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will continue to face downward pressure, with projected declines in sales area and investment for 2025 [20][23] Price Trends - In October, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, marking a trend of declining prices across the board [27][28] - The report highlights that all 70 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices for two consecutive months, a first since data collection began in 2011 [27][28] Investment and Financing - The report indicates that the funding for real estate developers decreased by 21.9% year-on-year in October, with both sales returns and external financing weakening [25] - The total amount of funds available to developers for the first ten months of the year was 7.89 trillion, down 9.7% compared to the previous year [25]