需求疲软，价格低位震荡

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For soda ash, multiple plants underwent concentrated maintenance last week, and some plants reduced their load, causing a slight decline in the operating rate and a contraction in weekly supply. Demand showed a slight recovery in shipments but remained below previous highs, with weak market feedback and poor downstream purchasing willingness. Since November, soda ash inventories have continued to accumulate, and the demand side has no significant boost, so the fundamentals maintain a bearish view. In terms of cost, the on - screen profit of the ammonia - soda process has turned negative, and the combined - soda process is on the verge of profit and loss. Overall, recent plant maintenance has boosted the fundamentals, but the shutdown period is short, and upstream restart may weaken the fundamentals. As the on - screen profit weakens, the cost logic may gradually emerge, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the number of operating production lines remains the same, with no obvious changes on the supply side. Downstream orders are fair, and the number of deep - processing order days for float glass enterprises has slightly increased, but glass enterprise inventories are still at an absolute high in the past three years, and there are no obvious seasonal de - stocking signs. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of operating production lines has increased, indicating stronger supply. However, demand is weak, and the inventory days of photovoltaic glass enterprises have further increased with a steep accumulation slope. Overall, both float glass and photovoltaic glass face inventory pressure and weak demand, so glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of the coal - to - gas policy in the Shahe area on the fundamentals and the position - holding risk of the glass main contract on the on - screen side [3]. - As of November 14, the price spread between soda ash and glass has reached 194 yuan/ton, expanding by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Although the total inventory of soda ash enterprises has increased month - on - month, the increase in photovoltaic glass production is still driving the de - stocking of heavy - soda ash inventory. In contrast, glass demand is sluggish, and both float glass and photovoltaic glass have strong inventory pressure. The fundamentals of soda ash are relatively better than those of glass. However, the price spread has expanded to an absolute high in the second half of the year, and there is a certain position - holding risk for glass. Therefore, it is not cost - effective to further go long on the spread, and short - term waiting and watching are advisable [8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/7 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1226 | 1210 | 16.0 | yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1175 | 1160 | 15.0 | yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 73.9 | 74.7 | - 0.8 | million tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 74.6 | 73.4 | 1.2 | million tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 170.6 | 169.2 | 1.4 | million tons | | Glass futures price | 1032 | 1091 | - 59.0 | yuan/ton | | Glass spot price (Shahe 5mm) | 1028 | 1052 | - 24.0 | yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.9 | 15.9 | 0.0 | yuan/ton | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6324.7 | 6313.6 | 11.1 | ten - thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | million tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.1 | 28.4 | 0.7 | days | [5] Market Review - Price: The mainstream market price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe area rose from 1175 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1195 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1036 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1028 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of about 8 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda ash supply: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 73.92 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7600 tons; the operating rate was 84.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Recent concentrated maintenance and load - reduction operations of multiple soda ash plants have led to a contraction in upstream supply. However, the shutdown period of the maintenance capacity is short, and there is a strong restart expectation in the near term. In contrast, the capacity with load - reduction operation has not given a clear recovery plan. It is expected that soda ash supply will increase marginally driven by upstream restart, but the increase may not reach previous levels [6]. - Soda ash demand: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.91 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in production (excluding zombie lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons compared to the previous period; the number of production lines in production was 403, an increase of 6 compared to the previous period. The slight increase in photovoltaic glass production has slightly driven the demand for soda ash. However, from the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has reached 29.08 days, an increase of 0.71 days compared to the previous period. The float glass inventory was 6324.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 11.1 ten - thousand weight boxes. During the reporting period, large glass manufacturers actively reduced shipments, and the profit - sharing space in the Shahe area was large. However, the real - estate industry is still sluggish, and the wind and solar projects have entered the grid - connection stage, resulting in poor downstream purchasing power and limited weekly shipment volume. It is worth noting that the prices of soda ash and coal have both risen slightly recently, and the cost center has shifted upward. Overall, high glass inventory and weak terminal - industry demand maintain a bearish expectation for the fundamentals. However, the increase in the cost center may support prices, and glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Soda ash inventory: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 170.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 million tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory was 80.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 million tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory was 90.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 million tons [7]. Industry News - Yutong Optics: Driven by new consumer business, performance has grown, and the production capacity of molded glass will be expanded to 8 million pieces per month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit increased rapidly, mainly benefiting from revenue growth, product - structure optimization, an increase in the proportion of overseas revenue, the rapid expansion of new consumer business, and a 1.7 - percentage - point increase in the comprehensive gross profit margin year - on - year. Currently, the molded glass (aspherical glass lenses) is in full production and in short supply. The company plans to expand the production capacity from the current monthly output of about 6 million pieces to 8 million pieces by the end of the year [10]. - Omdia: In the third quarter of 2025, the revenue of display glass reached a record 270 billion yen. Driven by both price and demand growth, it increased by 14% year - on - year and 5% quarter - on - quarter. Currently, the trading currency for display glass is still mainly the yen [10]. - Fuyao Glass: Focusing on providing full solutions for automotive glass and trim, and promoting research on the intelligent and integrated trends. The company is strengthening research on the intelligent and integrated trends of automotive glass and continuously promoting the aluminum - trim business to provide more comprehensive product solutions and services for OEM and ARG market users. With the development of the automotive industry towards electrification and intelligence, more and more new technologies are being integrated into automotive glass, and there is still room for growth in the automotive industry and automotive glass [10].