Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market continue to show a tight supply-demand balance, with total inventory declining for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline rate further expanding. The domestic production has continuously reached new highs, and the new production lines are ramping up to contribute to the increase. Currently, the price increase stimulates the production enthusiasm of manufacturers. However, the rapid consumption of spodumene raw material inventory limits the upside potential of production. The terminal market shows strong performance, and the optimistic demand expectation is difficult to be falsified. The orders in the power and energy storage markets are booming, and the production of lithium iron phosphate has repeatedly reached new highs, strongly supporting lithium carbonate. Currently, the market has strong expectations for energy storage, and related stocks have risen significantly. The market trading focuses on the demand side, and the impact of supply resumption is gradually weakening. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In October 2025 in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap at the end of October was 2.0 percentage points, wider than 1.2 percentage points in the previous month. The national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (previous value: 6.5%), social retail consumption increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 3%), the national real estate development investment from January to October was - 14.7% (previous value: - 13.9%), and the urban fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.5%). The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown and starting a "long restart." Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before the release of important economic data, reducing the probability of a rate cut in December, and risk assets adjusted collectively [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production continued to increase, with the weekly production remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The newly put - into - production capacity continued to ramp up, and the average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, and 16,200 tons were exported to China [3] Demand Side - According to the data released by the Passenger Car Association, from November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 265,000 units, a 5% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 16% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The new - energy penetration rate was 64%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.415 million units, a 21% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 306,000 units, a 3% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 59% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 12.362 million units, a 29% increase year - on - year [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $730 per ton, a $100 increase from last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $1,060 per ton, a $120 increase from last week. The market price of lithium mica was 3,075 yuan per ton, a 300 - yuan increase from last week. The cost of the lithium carbonate industry was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase [4] Total Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,481 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 28,270 tons, a decrease of 2,446 tons [5] Market Performance - As of November 14th, LC2601 closed at 87,360 yuan per ton, a 6.1% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,000 yuan per ton, an 8.4% increase from last week. The basis discount widened, and the position of the main contract was 517,000 lots. This week, the main contract reached a new high for the year, approaching the 90,000 - yuan mark. On Monday, the position increased by 40,000 lots, and the weighted position approached 1 million lots, with continuous increase in market attention [7] Production Status - As of November 14th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,850 tons, a 385 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.84% increase from last week. This week, the production continued to increase slightly. The price increase stimulated the production enthusiasm of manufacturers, and the operating rates of some enterprises increased. The newly put - into - production capacity was ramping up steadily, the production of lithium carbonate from mica was gradually increasing, and the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was restricted by raw material supply [9] - As of November 14th, the lithium hydroxide production was 6,520 tons, a 65 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 37.09%, a 0.37% increase from last week. This week, the lithium hydroxide production remained stable, and the operating rate was at a low level. Some production lines switched to lithium carbonate production, leading to a structural adjustment. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, dominated by small - batch orders [11] - As of November 14th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 99,906 tons, a 3,050 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 87.92%, a 2.68% increase from last week. This week, the lithium iron phosphate production continued to reach new highs, and the industry operating rate was close to 90%. The situation of strong supply and demand continued, especially the high - density lithium iron phosphate was in short supply. Downstream battery cell manufacturers maintained full production and sales, and material manufacturers had sufficient orders [13] Inventory Status - As of November 13th, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,841 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,170 tons, a decrease of 162 tons from last week. The inventory decline rate of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the inventory level of smelters was less than 30,000 tons, lower than the same period last year. However, the inventory in the trader segment increased slightly. The warehouse receipts remained at a low level, and the warehouse receipts in November faced centralized cancellation [32] - As of November 14th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,732 tons, a 400 - ton decrease from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. The continuous release of market demand drove the digestion of inventory. Downstream battery cell manufacturers had high capacity utilization rates. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises mainly fulfilled orders, with concentrated production scheduling, and the inventory maintained a downward trend [35] Cost and Profit Status - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuations of lithium carbonate, and recently, the consumption rate of lithium ore was too fast. Mines gradually sold at high points, and the transaction price was at a premium to the futures price, further squeezing the processing fee. The profit of integrated smelters improved significantly [51] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 66,639 yuan per ton, a 1,826 - yuan decrease from last week, and the industry profit was 9,986 yuan per ton, a 2,343 - yuan increase from last week. This week, the prices of lithium carbonate and spodumene were strong, driving a narrow increase in the price of lithium hydroxide. Downstream ternary material manufacturers maintained normal production rhythms, providing some support for the price. The inventory level continued to decline, and the industry maintained a slight profit [54] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 38,284 yuan per ton, a 1,607 - yuan increase from last week. The loss was 2,284 yuan per ton, a 178 - yuan decrease from last week. The increase in the price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end supported the cost of lithium iron phosphate. Due to the tight supply of high - density lithium iron phosphate products, the processing fees of newly signed orders increased, and the industry's loss was slightly reduced [58]
供需偏紧，碳酸锂回调做多：碳酸锂周报-20251117
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-17 01:50