风险偏好回落，铝价高位调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, last week, hawkish statements from Fed officials once suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but weak employment data may lead to changes in subsequent rate cut expectations. With the US government reopening and a large number of previously suspended economic data being released, market macro fluctuations have increased. Domestically, the operating capacity on the supply side is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased, and the ingot casting volume has increased. Overseas, due to power shortages, concerns about future supply persist. On the consumption side, the operating rate of aluminum processing increased slightly by 0.4% to 62% last week, with relatively strong consumption in the power and automotive sectors. However, it is difficult for the operating rate to continue rising during the peak-to-off-peak season transition. The weekly aluminum inventory remained flat at 627,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly by 2,000 tons to 140,000 tons. Overall, with a large number of US economic data and high macro uncertainties, the position of Shanghai aluminum has slightly decreased, market risk appetite has declined, and domestic fundamental drivers are weak, so aluminum prices may be adjusted [4][9]. - For cast aluminum, the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly last week, with the weekly operating rate increasing by 1.5% to 60.6% according to SMM data. On the consumption side, procurement is more cautious, mainly for replenishing inventory based on rigid demand. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 11,000 tons to 58,000 tons. In the raw material market, the price of scrap aluminum has risen following the price of primary aluminum, and the refined-scrap price difference of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan increased by 18 yuan/ton to 1,819 yuan/ton within the week. The prices of copper and industrial silicon are at high levels, providing good cost support. On the market, cast aluminum followed the rise of Shanghai aluminum to reach a short-term high, but there was a reduction in positions at the high level, indicating cautious funds. Cast aluminum may be adjusted, but the cost support is strong, and the adjustment range is expected to be limited [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/11/7 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 months | 2862 | 2858.5 | -3.5 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21630 | 21845 | 215.0 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai-London Aluminum Ratio | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | -12.91 | -28.05 | -15.1 | US dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 549225 | 552375 | 3150.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 63770 | 64742 | 972.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 21414 | 21726 | 312.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | -30 | -20 | 10.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 21284 | 21582 | 298.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai-Guangdong Price Difference | 130 | 144 | 14.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.7 | 62.7 | 0 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 15751.27 | 15718.21 | -33.1 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 5662.73 | 6007.79 | 345.1 | yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The weekly average price of aluminum ingot in the spot market was 21,726 yuan/ton, up 312 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of Southern Storage spot was 21,582 yuan/ton, up 298 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Macroeconomically, US President Trump signed a temporary federal government appropriation bill passed by both houses of Congress, ending the 43-day federal government shutdown. Fed's Kashkari said he did not support the Fed's last rate cut decision and had not decided on what action to take at the December policy meeting. According to ADP statistics, the average number of private sector jobs in the US decreased by 11,250 every two weeks in the four weeks ending October 25. The optimism of US small businesses hit a six-month low. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said he had told Trump that he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman if nominated. Hassett added that he hoped for a larger rate cut at the December policy meeting. Boston Fed President Collins, a voting member of the FOMC this year, said the threshold for further rate cuts in the short term was "relatively high." In the first ten months, China's total social financing increment accumulated to 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. At the end of October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month. The economic data in October was weak. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October decreased compared to September and was lower than the Wind consensus forecast. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales decreased for the fifth consecutive month, but due to a high base in the same period last year, the overall performance was better than the Wind consensus forecast. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased more significantly and was significantly weaker than the Wind consensus forecast [7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, according to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 62% month-on-month, showing a structural differentiation trend. In the short term, the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will show a differentiated trend. Grid orders will support the continued slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline gradually due to repeated environmental protection measures and the off-season. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, according to SMM, on November 13, the social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat at 627,000 tons compared to last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 21,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined-scrap price difference of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 1,819 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined-scrap price difference of Shanghai machine parts raw aluminum was 3,182 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 1.5% to 60.6% last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,599 tons compared to last Friday [8]. Market Outlook - Similar to the core view for electrolytic aluminum, with high macro uncertainties in the US and weak domestic fundamental drivers, aluminum prices may be adjusted [9]. - Similar to the core view for cast aluminum, cast aluminum may be adjusted, but the cost support is strong, and the adjustment range is expected to be limited [10]. Industry News - The 220kV substation HGIS equipment of the 350,000-ton green power aluminum project in Zhahaonaoer was successfully energized for the first time. Currently, the overall civil construction progress of the project has reached 90%, the main structure of the 220kV power distribution device has been completed, 200 cell shells have been installed, and the installation of other equipment is in progress. After the successful energization, the commissioning and operation of the electrolytic cell series, as well as the power, lighting, and control systems in each workshop and area, will be gradually powered on, providing preconditions for equipment single-unit commissioning and joint commissioning [11]. - The tax-included premium in the US Midwest reached a record high of 88.10 cents per pound (equivalent to $1,942 per ton) last Friday. Combined with the London Metal Exchange's benchmark price of $2,850 per ton, the actual price paid by US spot buyers has risen to $4,792 per ton. Since June, the premium has increased by more than 155% [12]. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum month-to-month spread, Shanghai-Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes [14][15][17][19][21][23][25].