氧化铝周报：弱现实与减产预期博弈，氧化铝弱势震荡不改-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is characterized by a game between weak reality and production - cut expectations, with the price in a weak oscillation. The reduction in alumina production is limited, supply remains abundant, and the supply - demand balance shows a surplus. Social and warehouse - receipt inventories continue to increase, putting significant pressure on prices. However, as the spot price approaches the cost line and the winter heating - limit production policy may be approaching, the market's expectation of production cuts is strengthening [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/11/7 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2783 | 2822 | 39 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2873 | 2868 | - 5 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 138 | 78 | - 60 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 320 | 320 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 8.43 | 16.21 | 7.8 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 253654 | 253654 | 0 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 71 | 71 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 1.4% last week, closing at 2,822 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 2,868 yuan/ton on Friday, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. - In the bauxite market, domestic mines in inland areas are still in short supply, and prices remain stable due to a combination of multiple factors. The revocation of the industrial development license of AXIS Mining Company in Guinea has limited impact on the current import market, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. - On the supply side, the supply of alumina has slightly decreased. Alumina plants in Guangxi and Shanxi have carried out maintenance this week, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54%. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have not increased or decreased production, and the supply has remained stable compared to last week. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises have started to prepare for winter storage, but the actual spot fixed - price transactions are limited due to the rising alumina quotation. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 30,282 tons to 254,000 tons last Friday, while the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - At the mining end, domestic bauxite is in short supply, and prices remain stable. The revocation of the industrial development license of AXIS Mining Company has limited impact on current imports. The demand side expects abundant ore supply and is cautious in purchasing, so ore prices remain under pressure. - On the supply side, alumina plants in Guangxi and Shanxi have carried out maintenance, and the alumina supply has slightly decreased. The operating capacity last week was 95.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons. - On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has remained stable, and the demand has changed little. - The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 30,282 tons to 254,000 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. Overall, the scale of alumina production cuts is limited, the supply is still abundant, the supply - demand balance is in surplus, and social and warehouse - receipt inventories continue to increase, putting pressure on prices. However, as the spot price approaches the cost line and the winter heating - limit production policy may be approaching, the market's expectation of production cuts is strengthening, and the game between weak reality and strong expectations is more obvious. Alumina prices are weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the progress of production cuts [6]. 3.4 Industry News - AGB2A - GIC in Guinea has applied to the Ministry of Mines and Geology for a reasonable extension of the measure to withdraw its mining equipment from the mining area previously allocated to Axis Minerals. The company has invested over $300 million in the area, especially in strategic infrastructure construction, including a modern port. It still holds 6 million tons of bauxite inventory in the mining area and is formulating a business continuity plan. - Guinea will accelerate the development of alumina refineries to end decades of exporting only raw ore. The Guinean Minister of Mines said that the government has signed the first alumina refinery agreement with an investment company, and the project is under construction, expected to be completed by the end of 2027. The country aims to build five to six alumina refineries by 2030, increasing the domestic annual processing capacity to about 7 million tons [7]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventories, and alumina cost - profit [9][12][14][15][17][20][22][25].