供应偏紧预期仍在，谨慎看空对待：中辉期货双焦周报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish view on the coking coal and coke industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic coking coal supply shortage pattern remains unbroken, and demand depends on the decline of subsequent hot metal production. Currently in a policy window period, with increased market wait - and - see sentiment. Short - term strategies suggest exiting the market or short - selling. Coking coal main contract reference range is [1150, 1230], and coke main contract reference range is [1630, 1710] [4] Market Overview - This week, black commodity prices continued to diverge, with coal and coke prices dropping significantly and steel and ore performing relatively strongly. The National Development and Reform Commission deployed energy supply work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production increased slightly but remained at a low level. Some mines had slow supply recovery. Downstream, hot metal production rebounded, and blast furnace operating rates remained high, supporting raw material demand. Imported port clearance vehicles increased, but downstream purchasing was cautious. Coke enterprises had smooth shipments, low inventory, and reduced restocking. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and there was an expectation of a fifth round [6] Coking Coal Market Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different types of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, in Tangshan on November 14, 2025, the spot price of Meng 5 was 1550 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1323 yuan/ton [10] Coking Coal Basis - The 01 basis strengthened to a high level in the same period. For the 1 - month contract, the basis was 325, with a weekly change of 13 and a basis rate of 23.57% [11][15] Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [16] Coking Coal Supply - Mines: This week, the average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines was 1.9195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,200 tons; the average daily output of clean coal was 757,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,100 tons. - Coal washing plants: The average daily output of sample coal washing plants was 274,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [22][25] Coking Coal Import - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. Different countries had different import volume changes. For example, Mongolia's cumulative imports were 41.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.85% [26][27] Coking Coal Auction Data - This week, the coking coal auction listing volume was 1.5544 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the成交 rate was 88.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.65%; the flow - auction rate was 11.58%, a week - on - week increase of 4.65% [32] Coking Coal Total Inventory - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [33] Coking Coal Inventory Distribution - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [35] Coke Market Coking Profit - Coking profits in different regions changed. Nationally, the profit on November 13, 2025, was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [42] Coke Basis - For the 1 - month coke contract, the basis was - 6, with a weekly change of 47 and a basis rate of - 0.38% [47] Coke Month - to - Month Spread - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [48] Coke Supply - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [50] Coke Demand - This week, the average daily coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [54] Coke Total Inventory - The total coke inventory on November 14, 2025, was 8.7935 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,000 tons [60] Coke Inventory Distribution - Steel mills' inventory was 6.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,400 tons; independent coking enterprises' inventory was 581,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; port inventory was 1.988 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,100 tons [60] Registered Warehouse Receipts - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [62] Futures Positions - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [64] Net Long Positions of TOP20 Seats in Coking Coal and Coke - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [69]