钢材周报：钢材减产增加期价震荡走势-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data shows negative trends. From January to October, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. National fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [1]. - The industrial data of last week was fair. The output of the five major steel products decreased month - on - month, inventory declined, and apparent demand dropped slightly. Building materials production cuts contributed most of the reduction, while hot - rolled coil data changed little. After steel mills cut production, supply pressure decreased, and short - term inventory reduction support strengthened, but the weak demand pattern remained unchanged. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3053 | 19 | 0.63 | 4907951 | 2731199 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3256 | 11 | 0.34 | 1702672 | 1302507 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 772.5 | 12.0 | 1.58 | 1423894 | 494127 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1192.0 | - 78.0 | - 6.14 | 5024636 | 941024 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1669.5 | - 87.0 | - 4.95 | 107554 | 48736 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Inventory reduction supported the stabilization of steel prices, but the terminal market remained weak and was under pressure. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 (+10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3190 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (0) yuan/ton [4]. - The macro and industrial data are consistent with the core viewpoints, showing negative trends in real estate and investment, and changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [4][5]. 3. Industry News - In October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.683 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [6]. - In October, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger cars were 1.282 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 10.151 million vehicles, an increase of 21.9% [6][7]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including the futures and month - spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the profit trends of short - process electric furnaces in East China and long - process steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil [9][11][13].