黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. The short - term gold price may fluctuate within a range, while the medium - and long - term is supported by economic recession risks, fiscal expansion, and weakening US dollar credit. For Shanghai Silver futures, the overall trend is in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. The short - term may consolidate within a range, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged under the support of macro - easing, supply - demand gap, and weakening US dollar credit. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 01. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a pattern of "strengthening in oscillation and then回调". The core logic was driven by the resonance of "signals of weak US economy" and "expectations of Fed easing", along with factors such as the weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases. The Friday回调 was due to high - level profit - taking pressure. In the future, the short - term gold price may fluctuate within a range, and the medium - and long - term is supported by economic recession risks, fiscal expansion, and weakening US dollar credit. Attention should be paid to the re - issuance of US economic data and Fed policy trends [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 02. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai Gold main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate between 900 - 940 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 will consolidate in a short - term oscillation. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 03. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22]. Silver Futures 01. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a pattern of "rising in oscillation and then回调 at a high level", reaching a record high of 12,600 yuan/kg. The core driving logic was the resonance of the strengthened expectations of Fed easing (ending QT and interest - rate cut expectations) and the structural shortage of spot goods, along with the surge in investment demand (increase in ETF holdings) and the resilience of industrial demand (recovery in photovoltaic and Indian imports). The Friday回调 was mainly due to high - level profit - taking and technical resistance, and the continuous decline in open interest indicated cautious market sentiment. In the future, the short - term may consolidate within a range, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged under the support of macro - easing, supply - demand gap, and weakening US dollar credit [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. 02. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention paid to the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kg. The upper resistance level was 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/kg. Short - term grid trading was recommended [33]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The silver contract 2602 will consolidate in a short - term oscillation. The upper pressure level is 12,000 - 12,600 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. 03. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [41][43][46].