短期区间波动等待行情驱动：中辉期货钢材周报-20251117

Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Zhonghui Futures Steel Weekly Report: Short - term Range - bound, Awaiting Market Drivers", issued on November 14, 2025, by Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd [1] Market Overview - This week, the black - sector showed slight differentiation. The main contract of rebar rose 0.6%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.3%, iron ore rose 1.6%, coke fell 5%, and coking coal fell 6.1%. The previously strong coal and coke weakened [2] - In terms of supply and demand, the production and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined month - on - month, showing off - season characteristics. The inventory of hot - rolled coil and rebar in East China continued to rise against the season, creating real - world pressure [2] - Macroeconomic data remained poor, with the growth rates of real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak. The previously supportive supply side of coking coal loosened, and the policy emphasis on supply security changed market expectations [2] Strategy Suggestions - The recent steel market has been dull, with low prices reflecting weak fundamentals. Further market development requires new logical support [2] - The macro and anti - involution factors have temporarily ended. The upward drive of raw material replenishment and the downward drive of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of market games in the next stage [2] - The rebar 01 contract found support around 3000. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited due to fundamental constraints [2] Steel Monthly Data (as of September 30, 2025) - Pig iron production was 6605000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; the cumulative production was 64586000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [4] - Crude steel production was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the cumulative production was 74625000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [4] - Steel production was 12421000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the cumulative production was 110385000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [4] - Steel imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; the cumulative imports were 504000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [4] - Steel exports were 978000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the cumulative exports were 9774000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [4] Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data (as of November 14, 2025) | Product | Weekly Production (tons) | Production Change | Cumulative Production YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Cumulative Consumption YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 200000 | - 8540 | - 3% | 216370 | - 2150 | - 6% | 576170 | - 16370 | 29.33% | | Wire Rod | 78570 | - 7900 | - 7% | 87000 | - 1870 | - 8% | 122280 | - 8410 | 21% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 313660 | - 4500 | 1% | 313590 | - 710 | 1% | 410520 | 70 | 27% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 83960 | 120 | 1.84% | 86390 | 1070 | 1.13% | 172070 | - 2430 | 15.71% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 158190 | - 1540 | 4.33% | 157270 | - 2670 | 4.21% | 196310 | 920 | 5.27% | | Total | 834380 | - 22360 | 0% | 861000 | - 6000 | - 1.25% | 1477000 | - 26220 | 22.72% | [5] Steel Production Profit (as of November 13, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 29 | 17 | - 86 | 3 | | North China | 39 | 5 | - 50 | - 56 | | Central China | 175 | 10 | - 123 | 75 | [20] Steel Demand Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 6.5% [27] - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 13.6% [27] Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement in cement out - bound volume, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30] - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with the absolute level comparable to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30] Steel Exports - In October, steel exports decreased month - on - month and were lower than the same period last year [36] - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36] Steel Inventory and Basis Rebar - Rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets. After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence period, the futures market usually oscillates upward. With current rebar production lower than last year, inventory is expected to enter a normal destocking phase, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was weak at a low level this week, with limited fluctuations [60] Hot - Rolled Coil - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable. This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to rise slightly, reaching the highest level for the same period. Cold - rolled coil inventory was also at a relatively high level. According to seasonal patterns, there is a risk of further inventory increase, which will continue to suppress the basis [54] - The 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil changed little, showing a slight discount. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tend to be looser, suppressing the inter - month spread and preventing it from strengthening [65]