格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be bullish, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, soybean oil being cautiously bullish, and palm oil oscillating at the bottom. For two - meal products, look for new buying points during the decline, with soybean meal waiting for a pullback and rapeseed meal having limited room for further decline [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 14, before the release of the US Department of Agriculture report, the vegetable oil market was under pressure. The closing prices of the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased compared to the previous day, with varying degrees of position changes [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures rose over 2% on November 14 due to supply concerns. The US EPA approved some small refinery exemption applications. Brazil may not raise the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. MPOB's October palm oil data showed increased production, exports, and inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period in October. As of the 45th week of 2025, the total domestic inventory of the three major edible oils decreased by 6.01% week - on - week [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean supply - demand report was bullish, and the Malaysian palm oil market was in a vacuum. Domestically, soybean oil followed the upward trend but had limited upside. Palm oil was weak, and rapeseed oil's short - term sharp rise might face a callback risk. The overall vegetable oil market was divided [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Do not chase high for rapeseed oil, hold soybean oil long positions cautiously, and do not short palm oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - Arbitrage: None 3.2 Two - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 14, before the release of the US Department of Agriculture report, the protein sector was led by soybean meal. The main contract of soybean meal rose, while the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed meal declined [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean yield and production forecasts. China resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies. Brazilian soybean planting progress was 61% as of November 10. StoneX predicted an increase in Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production. Brazil's soybean exports in October were higher than last year. There were rumors of China's purchase of Australian rapeseed. As of the 45th week of 2025, domestic imported soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal inventory decreased [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean supply - demand report was bullish, but then the market was under pressure. Domestically, the supply of soybeans was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. Rapeseed meal had limited room for further decline due to zero raw material inventory [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Buy long positions in the far - month 2605 contract of soybean meal, close short positions in rapeseed meal, and look for new buying points during the decline. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3] - Arbitrage: None