宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数下跌1.08%-20251117

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08% this week, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > cash [1][2][4]. Economic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.0%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points compared to September [3][6]. - The industrial added value for October increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% from January to October, with real estate development investment down by 14.7% [6][24]. Asset Performance - The report highlights that the commodity futures index rose by 3.92% this week, with significant increases in precious metals (4.23%) and grains (1.41%). However, energy and coal-related sectors saw declines [50]. - The ten-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, while the ten-year national development bond yield also held steady [45][49]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes a recovery in consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with restaurant income growing by 3.8% year-on-year, which contributed to a 0.4 percentage point increase in overall retail sales growth [3][6]. - Despite a year-on-year decline in automobile and online goods retail sales of 4.4% and 1.2% respectively, these sectors are expected to be key drivers for future domestic demand expansion [3][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an overweight position on equities, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies. Bonds and cash are recommended for underweight positions due to potential short-term impacts from the equity-bond relationship [5][14]. - The commodity sector is suggested to be held at a standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal policies [5][14]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the A-share market showed weakness, with most indices declining except for the Shanghai Dividend Index, which rose by 0.39%. The leading sectors included catering and tourism, while telecommunications and electronics faced significant declines [40][41]. High-Tech Industry Insights - The report mentions that several smartphone manufacturers have paused their procurement of storage chips due to rising prices, indicating a potential impact on the high-tech sector [42][43]. Summary of Key Economic Meetings - Key meetings involving Chinese leadership emphasized the importance of enhancing consumption and investment in emerging sectors such as renewable energy and digital economy, which may influence future economic policies [22][23].