中泰期货晨会纪要-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - Steel and Ore: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - Ferroalloys: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - Eggs: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - Apples: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - Corn: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - Red Dates: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - Pigs: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - Plastic: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - Rubber: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - Methanol: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - Caustic Soda: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - Polyester Industry Chain: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - Paper Pulp: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - Logs: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - Urea: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - Synthetic Rubber: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].