棉花：新棉上市压力仍压制期价

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pressure of new cotton listings still suppresses cotton futures prices. The overall market shows a weak trend, with cotton spot trading being light, and the cotton textile industry in a traditional off - season with cautious market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Cotton Futures Data - Prices and Changes: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,695 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 19,710 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2601 was 210,406 lots, an increase of 6,629 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 918,018 lots, a decrease of 24,420 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 13,433 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,401, an increase of 221, and the effective forecast was 643, a decrease of 235. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 28, a decrease of 2, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 30 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - Cotton Spot Prices: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,454 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28% compared to the previous day; the price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,393 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28%. The prices in Shandong and Hebei also showed slight declines [1]. - Yarn Spot Prices: The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,100 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or - 0.18% [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: Cotton spot trading was light, and sales basis was mostly stable, with a decrease in low - basis goods. The one - price quotes for northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29B, impurity within 3.5) were above 14,550 yuan/ton, and the point - price basis was mostly above CF01 + 1050. The mainstream lower sales basis for southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3) was between CF01 + 900 and 1050 [1][2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: Pure cotton yarn trading was light, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream markets focused on shipments, and spinning mills' sales slowed down, with inventory slightly increasing. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with clothing grey fabric sales being flat and home textile grey fabric sales continuing. Orders were mainly inquiries for export orders, and the increase in domestic spring - summer orders was limited [1][2]. - US Cotton Situation: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell below the October low because the US Department of Agriculture raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4].