研究所晨会观点精萃-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - Glass: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - Aluminum: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - Tin: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - Polysilicon: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - Asphalt: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - PX: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - PTA: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - Methanol: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - PP: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - LLDPE: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - Urea: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - Edible Oils: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - Corn: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - Hogs: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].