投顾晨报：震荡格局未改，防守策略生效-20251117

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a "fluctuating" state with both upward and downward movements, characterized by a slight strengthening trend [3][7] - The current market environment is stable, with external and internal factors not being the core of short-term trading; instead, the characteristics of the market are driven by style and trading dynamics [7] Industry Strategy - The pig farming industry is likely to see a market-driven capacity reduction due to current weak prices and policy support, with live pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices around 200 yuan/head, indicating a phase of overall industry losses [4][7] - Historical trends suggest that when pig prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could lead to long-term price increases for pigs [7] Thematic Strategy - The retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the extended Spring Festival in 2026, which is expected to boost seasonal consumption, particularly in offline department stores and supermarkets [5][7] - Cities with unique tourism resources, such as Urumqi, Chongqing, Changsha, Fuzhou, and Shenyang, are expected to attract significant tourist traffic, further enhancing local retail consumption [7]