有色金属日报-20251117

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - Copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the Shanghai Copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton and LME Copper 3M in the range of 10,720 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [4] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. Although the short - term rise has slowed down, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the prices may strengthen further after consolidation. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton and LME Aluminum 3M in the range of 2,830 - 2,890 US dollars/ton [6] - Lead prices are expected to slow down in growth and enter a volatile state [8] - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] - Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices are under fundamental pressure. The short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, the current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The short - term upside space may be limited without continuous driving forces. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in lithium - battery materials in December, battery production in the first quarter, and the equity market atmosphere. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is expected to operate in the range of 85,300 - 89,900 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the downward trend under the background of high supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [28] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: Fed rate - cut expectations weakened, leading to a correction in precious - metal prices. On Friday, copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME Copper 3M contract closed down 0.12% at 10,846 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 450 to 135,725 tons. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M changed from a discount to a slight premium. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased week - on - week, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 50,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 55 yuan/ton, and the trading sentiment warmed up. Inventories in Guangdong decreased, and the spot premium was 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,480 yuan/ton, narrowing week - on - week [3] - Strategy View: The US government reopened, but there are some headwinds at the geopolitical level. The impact on sentiment is expected to be limited. In terms of the industry, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight. After the price correction, the spot market has improved marginally. The short - term pressure on refined copper inventory accumulation is not large, and copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4] Aluminum - Market Information: On Friday, market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices declined. LME Aluminum closed down 0.64% at 2,858 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,795 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai Aluminum weighted contract decreased by 4.4 to 784,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 65,000 tons. Domestic inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined. The market trading was still poor. The spot price of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at par with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand purchases. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 0.1 to 552,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M discount widened [5] - Strategy View: The reopening of the US government, combined with the expectation of tight overseas supply and low domestic inventories, led to a significant increase in positions and a sharp rise in Shanghai Aluminum. Currently, domestic aluminum - ingot inventories are relatively volatile, and overseas aluminum inventories are still at a low level, strongly supporting aluminum prices. Although the short - term decline in market risk appetite has slowed down the rise of aluminum prices, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, aluminum prices still have the hope of further strengthening after consolidation [6] Lead - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead index closed down 0.91% at 17,501 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 123,600 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 20.5 to 2,068 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 158,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,425 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead - ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, the domestic basis was - 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 50 yuan/ton. LME lead - ingot inventories were 224,000 tons, and LME lead - ingot cancelled warrants were 95,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 24.26 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 94.4 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.193, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was - 315.86 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories slightly increased to 40,900 tons [7] - Strategy View: Lead - ore inventories increased slightly, but the TC of lead concentrates continued to decline. Waste - battery inventories increased slightly, and the supply of domestic lead raw materials remained tight. The profits of primary and secondary smelting were good, the operating rate of primary smelting remained high, and the operating rate of secondary smelting continued to rise. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises improved marginally. Overall, domestic lead - ingot social inventories increased marginally. Last week, lead prices tried to break through the 17,800 - yuan level again. However, with the hawkish remarks of Fed officials, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead changed from long to short. It is expected that the growth rate of lead prices will slow down, and the prices will enter a volatile state [8] Zinc - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc index closed down 1.39% at 22,455 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,700 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 63 to 3,026 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,200 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,490 yuan/ton, the basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 70 yuan/ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 60 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 30 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc - ingot futures inventory was 71,800 tons, the domestic basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 55 yuan/ton. LME zinc - ingot inventories were 37,800 tons, and LME zinc - ingot cancelled warrants were 3,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 121.49 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 49.15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.048, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, domestic social inventories slightly decreased to 157,900 tons [9] - Strategy View: Zinc - ore inventories increased slightly, but zinc ore remained in short supply during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, and the profits of zinc smelting were damaged. The supply of zinc ingots decreased marginally. The downstream operating rate remained stable, and the growth of domestic zinc - ingot social inventories slowed down. In the LME market, zinc - ingot warrants slowly increased, and the LME zinc monthly spread decreased marginally. With the hawkish remarks of Fed officials last Friday, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc quickly declined. It is expected that zinc prices will be weak in the short term [10] Tin - Market Information: On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 291,450 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange futures increased by 234 tons to 5,498 tons. The upstream 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was quoted at 280,100 yuan/ton, down 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of supply, with the end of the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan, the operating rates of tin - ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have stabilized, but the overall operating level is still at a historical low. The core reason is that the problem of tight supply of tin - ore raw materials has not been fundamentally resolved. Although the mining licenses in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, affected by the rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the supply gap. According to customs data, in September 2025, China's import volume of tin - concentrate physical quantity reached 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. In terms of demand, although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectation brought by emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers provides support for tin prices. In October, the operating rate of domestic tin - solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished their inventories on dips [11] - Strategy View: In the short term, the supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] Nickel - Market Information: On Friday, nickel prices fell sharply. At 3 pm, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton, down 1.56% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was okay this week, and nickel - ore prices were stable with a slight upward trend. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 52.8 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. In terms of nickel - iron, prices fell rapidly. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 905.5 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 3.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] - Strategy View: The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures. First, refined - nickel inventories have been increasing since October, directly suppressing nickel prices. Second, nickel - iron prices have been falling rapidly since November, and the expectation of RKEF production lines switching to high - grade nickel matte has increased. The supply of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly. In addition, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and with the expected commissioning of the Indonesian MHP project, the supply of refined - nickel raw materials has been further supplemented. Considering that the current profit level of nickel - iron is already at an absolute low, it is expected that the short - term decline space of nickel prices is limited. However, it is also necessary to guard against the negative - feedback risk caused by the decline in nickel - ore prices. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On November 14, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 86,543 yuan, down 1.14% from the previous working day and up 7.34% for the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 86,200 - 87,300 yuan, with the average price down 1,000 yuan (- 1.14%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 85,200 - 85,700 yuan, with the average price down 1.16% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 87,360 yuan, down 0.55% from the previous closing price and up 6.15% for the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan. The CIF price of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was quoted at 1,040 - 1,070 US dollars/ton, with the average price up 0.48% from the previous day and up 12.23% for the week [18] - Strategy View: The current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles and energy - storage batteries have reached new highs, and the high - level consumption has driven the bullish sentiment in the lithium - battery material and raw - material markets. In the short term, the domestic lithium - carbonate production is approaching the upper limit, the capacity utilization rates of all links in the industrial chain are at the annual peak, the lithium - salt spot is in short supply, and the inventory days have reached the lowest level since data records began. At the same time, the expected accelerated inventory reduction in the market has been fully traded, and the peak season is in