黑色建材日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks in hot - rolled coils. Future price trends will depend on the production cut rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption side may gradually recover. In the short term, due to cost factors, the price of finished products will continue to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - The iron ore supply shows a downward trend in overseas shipments, while the demand has a marginal increase in iron ore due to the rebound of daily hot - metal production. High inventory still suppresses prices, and in the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - The black sector has continued to decline in the past week, but as the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high [9] - The industrial silicon may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13] - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is still in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 90327 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.837133 million lots, a decrease of 20210 lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.061%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 114083 tons, an increase of 6477 tons. The main contract position was 1.287025 million lots, a decrease of 15482 lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change, and in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar supply and demand both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, with a neutral overall performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils was weak, unable to absorb the production, and the inventory showed an inverse - seasonal accumulation [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) on Friday was 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00% (0.00). The position changed by - 13747 lots to 480400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 900800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07%. The Ximengdu Iron Ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to increase production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline in the latest period. In the shipping end, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to fall, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal production in the latest period was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons month - on - month. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with the utilization rate of some blast furnaces increasing. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses prices, and the short - term rebound of hot - metal production supports the iron ore demand marginally. In the short - term, the ore price will operate within the range, and the lower limit is 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5748 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 122 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 0.29% at 5490 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price [7] - Last week, the manganese silicon price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton or - 0.14%. On the daily - line level, the price was still in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation continued to narrow. The ferrosilicon price fluctuated and declined slightly last week, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or - 1.01%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The black sector continued to decline in the past week. As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on emotions and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price. For the black sector, the cost - performance of seeking positions for rebound is relatively high. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information (Industrial Silicon) - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) on Friday was 9020 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15027 lots to 403388 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 330 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Strategy Viewpoints (Industrial Silicon) - On Friday, the industrial silicon price fluctuated downwards. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate. The supply has shown a contraction trend, and the demand side may reduce the procurement demand for industrial silicon. It may present a pattern of "weak supply and demand". The cost provides a bottom - support, and in the short - term, it will be weak and volatile. The follow - up development of the "anti - involution" in the downstream industry needs to be concerned [13][14] Market Information (Polysilicon) - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2601) on Friday was 54045 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.28% (- 150). The weighted contract position changed by + 3947 lots to 241059 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1745 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Strategy Viewpoints (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon market is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - reduction expectation has been realized, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The market is in a fierce game, and the follow - up progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain need to be concerned [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information (Glass) - The glass main contract closed at 1032 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.27% (- 24). The price of large plates in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, an increase of 0.18% (111000 boxes). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased 61127 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 78307 lots of short positions [18] Strategy Viewpoints (Glass) - The current float glass market has limited positive factors, and the downstream support is insufficient. High inventory suppresses prices, the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient, and the upward space is restricted [19] Market Information (Soda Ash) - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.05% (- 13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons (an increase of 0.18% in the wrong calculation in the text). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 907100 tons, an increase of 7500 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 800200 tons, a decrease of 14400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 22518 lots of long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 3823 lots of short positions [20] Strategy Viewpoints (Soda Ash) - The current soda ash industry has a relatively high supply, and the downstream demand is average. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and in the short - term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [21]