Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 15, all four major stock index futures contracts declined. IF dropped 1.6%, IH dropped 1.19%, IC dropped 1.52%, and IM dropped 1.08% [1]. - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF decreased by 1,880 lots, IH decreased by 4,658 lots, IC decreased by 15,612 lots, and IM decreased by 22,224 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 5,374 lots, IH increased by 806 lots, IC increased by 1,308 lots, and IM increased by 1,057 lots [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 all declined, with decreases of 1.60%, 1.56%, 1.48%, and 1.43% respectively. The trading volumes of IF2511 and IF2512 decreased, while those of IF2603 and IF2606 increased. The positions of IF2511 decreased, while those of IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 increased [1]. - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, and IH2606 all declined, with decreases of 1.19%, 1.22%, 1.22%, and 1.29% respectively. The trading volumes of IH2511 and IH2512 decreased, while those of IH2603 and IH2606 showed different trends. The positions of IH2511 decreased, while those of IH2512, IH2603, and IH2606 increased [1]. - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 all declined, with decreases of 1.52%, 1.56%, 1.54%, and 1.51% respectively. The trading volumes of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 all decreased. The positions of IC2511 decreased, while those of IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 increased [1]. - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 all declined, with decreases of 1.08%, 1.22%, 1.27%, and 1.27% respectively. The trading volumes of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 all decreased. The positions of IM2511 decreased, while those of IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 increased [1]. 3.2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - In October, China's industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 5.2% and a previous value of 6.5%. From January to October, the industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year [6]. - China's total retail sales of consumer goods in October were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, with an expected increase of 2.7% and a previous value of 3%. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 41,216.9 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.9% [6]. - From January to October, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40,891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the previous value decreased by 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year [6]. - From January to October, the average urban survey unemployment rate in China was 5.2%. In October, the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The urban survey unemployment rate in 31 large - scale cities was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours of enterprise employees in the country were 48.4 hours [7]. - The State Council held a meeting to study the in - depth implementation of "two major" construction and promote consumption policies. The meeting pointed out that "two major" construction should be planned and promoted in the overall situation of the 15th Five - Year Plan, and artificial intelligence integration and empowerment should be strengthened [7]. - The Minister of Finance stated that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the proactive fiscal policy should be sufficient in intensity, precise in implementation, and coordinated in policies, and should focus on boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and promoting the construction of a unified market [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, dropping 0.97% to 3,990.49 points, with a weekly decline of 0.18%. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.93%, with a weekly decline of 1.4%. The ChiNext Index dropped 2.82%, with a weekly decline of 3.01%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.98 trillion yuan, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.65% to 47,147.48 points, the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.05% to 6,734.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.13% to 22,900.59 points. Most Chinese concept stocks declined [8].
期指:震荡整固
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-17 02:47