宁证期货今日早评-20251117

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals, with potential for mid - term high - level oscillations [1] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The rebar futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range at a low level [4] - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [6] - The LH2601 contract for live pigs may decline in the short term and oscillate at the bottom [7] - The soybean meal 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - The palm oil price will oscillate at a low level [8] - The long - term treasury bond market will oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [8] - Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term [9] - The crude oil price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] Summary by Product Precious Metals - Gold: On November 17, Fed officials had different views on a December interest - rate cut. The market probability of a December rate cut dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals. Mid - term high - level oscillations are possible. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - Silver: Although there are rumors about Trump's tariff rebate, the change in the Fed's December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, pressuring precious metals. Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the divergence between gold and silver [9] Agricultural Products - Rubber: Thai raw rubber prices are 56.6 Thai baht/kg. Hainan's glue - to - whole - milk price is 16,100 yuan/ton. Due to cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand, raw material prices may remain high. However, with expected increases in overseas ship arrivals, insufficient terminal demand, and expected declines in downstream enterprise开工, natural rubber is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Soybean Meal: Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil refinery operating rates are slowly rising, and crushing volumes are high. Demand is relatively stable, and soybean meal inventory is increasing, limiting price increases. The domestic breeding industry is weak, which may limit demand growth. The 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - Palm Oil: From November 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.5%. Foreign quotes are low, and the price - performance ratio has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will oscillate at a low level [8] - Live Pigs: As of November 17, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter is 123.53 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 33.61%. Farmers want to raise prices, but terminal demand is insufficient, and slaughterhouses are not enthusiastic about purchasing. The price is under pressure. The LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [7] Industrial Metals - Rebar: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.81%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.8%. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and production is decreasing. Demand is also falling due to the off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is decreasing. There may be policy benefits in December, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [4] - Iron Ore: The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 9,076.01 tons, and the daily consumption is 292.63 tons. The impact of the hurricane has ended, and the shipping end is stable. Demand may decline seasonally. Inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - Coking Coal: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 71.64%. Supply is still tight in China. Coke production is declining, and downstream procurement has slowed down. The futures market is under pressure, but the fundamentals still provide support, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: As of November 14, the number of US online drilling oil wells increased by 3 compared to the previous week. The attack on a Russian oil storage facility has raised supply concerns. However, the overall supply is excessive, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - Asphalt: The weekly output is 51.4 tons, and the inventory is decreasing. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream purchasing is cautious. Refinery profits have been boosted, suppressing the asphalt price, which is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - Methanol: The market price in Jiangsu is 2,047 yuan/ton. The domestic operating rate is high, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - Soda Ash: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,263 yuan/ton. Production is slightly decreasing, and inventory is relatively stable. The glass industry's operating rate is slightly decreasing. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - PVC: The price of SG - 5 type in East China is 4,520 yuan/ton. Production is expected to remain high, but profits are poor. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign trade growth is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]