铅锌日评20251117：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the price is under pressure above as downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakens at high prices, while refinery profits improve and supply tightness eases. It's recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the short - term price may be under pressure due to weak fundamentals, but in the medium - term, the tightening of the ore end in the fourth quarter will support the price, and it's advisable to use range trading. Previous short positions should be held [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On November 17, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,425 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the futures main contract closing price was 17,495 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 37,346 hands, down 39.18%; the open interest was 38,417 hands, down 11.62% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,066 dollars/ton, down 0.43%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.47, down 0.45% [1]. Industry News - From November 7 to November 13, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 48.2%, down 2.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, up 1.34 percentage points [1]. - On November 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons or 0.67% to 222,475 tons, all from Singapore warehouses [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. In the secondary lead sector, the operating rate in Anhui rebounds after restart, while that in Henan declines due to environmental protection. The demand side improves, but high prices weaken downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On November 17, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,420 yuan/ton, down 0.62%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,425 yuan/ton, down 1.39%. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 123,632 hands, up 26.56%; the open interest was 100,153 hands, down 2.71% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 3,014.5 dollars/ton, down 0.86%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.44, down 0.53% [1]. Industry News - From November 7 to November 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 57.59%, up 2.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.31%, down 1.32 percentage points [1]. - In September 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 127,600 metal tons, down 13% month - on - month but up 25.5% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to September was 1,117,900 metal tons, up 17.5% year - on - year [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries actively purchase domestic ores, and the domestic ore shortage persists, leading to continuous declines in processing fees. The supply side has good profits and production enthusiasm, with monthly production expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is weak, affected by cold weather and environmental protection [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions, and use range trading mainly [1].