国泰海通晨报-20251117

Macro Research - In October, industrial, consumption, and investment growth rates have all slowed down, reflecting both short-term disturbances from holiday timing and high base effects, as well as gradually emerging pressures on domestic and external demand [1][24] - High-growth industries and policy-supported sectors, such as automotive and transportation equipment, are benefiting from seasonal demand and infrastructure project advancements, maintaining active production [24] - Online consumption continues to show steady growth due to convenience and promotional activities, while traditional consumption sectors and real estate-related areas are experiencing weak demand [24] Computer Industry - Alibaba has launched the "Qwen" project to develop a personal AI assistant app, aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT, marking a significant strategic expansion into the consumer market [5] - Baidu has emphasized the value of AI applications and showcased a series of self-developed hardware, including the Kunlun chip, to strengthen its autonomous computing capabilities [6] - The domestic GPU company, Muxi, has received approval for its IPO, which will fund the development of high-performance general-purpose GPUs, indicating a key step for domestic high-end chips [7] - The computer sector maintains an "overweight" rating, with recommended stocks including Risheng Technology, Kingdee International, and others [4] Non-ferrous Metals Industry - The liquidity crisis has eased following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, leading to a recovery in precious metals [8] - Gold prices are expected to rise as market liquidity improves, while rare earth prices have continued to decline, indicating a cautious trading atmosphere [8] - Copper prices may experience volatility due to fluctuating Fed rate cut expectations and seasonal demand, but long-term demand remains strong [9] - The aluminum sector is seeing a positive outlook due to supply-demand dynamics, with rising prices and low inventory levels [9] Cosmetics Industry - The Double Eleven shopping festival showed robust double-digit growth, with instant retail and full-chain integration becoming key trends [12] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and international high-end brands have shown stable growth, with Pechoin maintaining its leading position in the Tmall beauty category [13] - Brands such as Ru Yuchen and Shangmei have reported significant growth in sales during the Double Eleven period, indicating strong brand performance [14]