Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the economy. In the US, the potential replacement of the Atlanta Fed President by a dovish candidate and the uncertainty of the next Fed Chair's identity could affect the interest - rate cut outlook. Domestically, the economic data shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it broke through the 7.10 mark due to the weak US dollar index, and is expected to get some support from seasonal effects. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at 7.07 [6]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the weak recovery of the domestic fundamentals and the influence of external factors such as US officials' hawkish remarks and the release of key US economic data [7]. - For treasury bonds, mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term investors can buy on dips [8]. - In the container shipping market, the EC2602 contract's last trading day is confirmed. The market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with multiple long and short factors in play. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrageurs can focus on specific spreads [9][10][11]. - For precious metals, in the short - term, the adjustment may continue. Long - term factors still support the upward movement of precious metal prices. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for gold and silver [17]. - For copper, the macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamental de - stocking limits the price increase. The copper price is expected to find a balance based on downstream procurement, with different price ranges predicted [20][21]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][24]. - For zinc, it is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with support at the bottom in November [24]. - For tin, it is recommended to enter the market on dips as the supply is weak compared to demand in the short - term [25]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [28]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and opportunities at the lower level can be noted [29]. - For steel products (rebar and hot - rolled coil), they are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit restricted by inventory [32]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating, but there is a structural shortage. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices for better risk - return [34][36]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term prices may adjust, but in the long - term, they may strengthen with the implementation of policies and winter storage demand. Specific price ranges are provided for investment [37][38]. - For ferroalloys (silicon iron and silicon manganese), they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [39]. - For crude oil, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level between 60 - 65 dollars, with key attention on geopolitical and risk - aversion factors [44]. - For LPG, it is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with a high valuation [46]. - For PTA - PX, they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA surplus expectation restricts the processing fee recovery [50]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the long - term supply - demand surplus remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Specific price levels are provided for operation [53]. - For urea, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the downward space supported and the upward space pressured [55]. - For PP, the short - term supply - demand situation improves, and the PP1 - 5 positive spread is supported [58]. - For PE, it shows a bottom - up trend, but the upward space is limited due to the long - term weak supply - demand pattern [61]. - For pure benzene and styrene, they rebounded at a low level, but the fundamental surplus situation remains, and the rebound height is limited [62][63]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be at a low - level consolidation with upward drivers [65][66]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [69]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the supply and demand are affected by multiple factors, and the price may face pressure during the upward process [70]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the fundamentals are weak. Soda ash is cost - priced, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda has a weak supply - demand pattern in the long - term [71][72][73]. - For pulp and offset paper, they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations with a slightly downward - shifted center [75]. - For logs, long - term strategies such as 01 - 03 reverse spreads can be considered [76]. - For propylene, it is expected to fluctuate, with the supply side being the main source of price fluctuations [78]. - For hogs, the near - term pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see and participate in reverse spreads appropriately [83]. - For oilseeds, the USDA report's bullish effect was less than expected. The domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [84][85][86]. - For oils, they are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the upward opportunities of the far - month 05 contract [88]. - For soybeans, the bullish trend continues with strong capital buying willingness [90]. - For corn and starch, they are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom, with limited one - way upward movement [92]. - For cotton, the domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but there is still some support from the demand side [94]. - For sugar, attention should be paid to the performance around 5500 [96]. - For eggs, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and it is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [97]. - For apples, the recent trend remains strong [99]. - For jujubes, the new - season production is still uncertain. The price may have limited downward space during the purchase season, and attention should be paid to the commodity rate and purchase situation [101]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Key events include the publication of important articles on new - quality productivity, government meetings on promoting consumption, and the release of China's October economic data. The US has a schedule for releasing important economic data, and there are developments in trade agreements and Fed interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The previous trading day's exchange rate data is provided. It is affected by the US dollar index and domestic policies. The key is to follow economic data and domestic enterprise settlement intentions [3][4][6]. - Stock Index: The previous trading day's stock index was weak, and the trading volume decreased. The release of October financial and economic data shows that the domestic fundamentals are in a weak - recovery state, and the index is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7]. - Treasury Bonds: The previous week's treasury bonds fluctuated, and the market lacked trading hotspots. The 10 - month economic and financial data were mostly disappointing, but the market reaction was limited. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [7][8]. - Container Shipping (European Line): The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is confirmed. The market is affected by both macro and industry fundamentals, with multiple long and short factors [9][10]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Last week, the prices of precious metals rose and then fell. The long - term factors support the upward movement, but the short - term adjustment may continue [15][17]. - Copper: The domestic and international copper prices had different performances last week. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamental de - stocking limits the price increase [18][20]. - Aluminum: The price and position of Shanghai aluminum reached a high this week, and then some long positions left. The overseas supply is expected to tighten, but the downstream demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [21][22][23]. - Zinc: The zinc price adjusted at a high level. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory has the possibility of de - stocking. It is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend [24]. - Tin: The tin price adjusted intraday. The supply is weak compared to demand in the short - term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The industrial silicon market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the polysilicon industry is in a state of production reduction and inventory accumulation. They are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [25][28]. - Lead: The lead price adjusted slightly. The supply was tight in October, and it is gradually returning to balance. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [29]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Last week, the steel products fluctuated, and the bottom support was strong. The supply and demand of rebar are improving marginally, while the hot - rolled coil has high inventory pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [30][31][32]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand are both weak in the short - term, and the inventory is accumulating, but there is a structural shortage. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices [34][36]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The recent price increase of coking coal and thermal coal has led to a wait - and - see attitude in the market. The demand for coking coal is seasonally weak, but the long - term supply may be restricted, and it is recommended to consider long positions at appropriate price ranges [37][38]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: The steel mill profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The inventory is at a high level, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The previous week's oil price showed an N - shaped fluctuation and moved down. The current supply is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with key attention on geopolitical and risk - aversion factors [41][43][44]. - LPG: It is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with a high valuation and a neutral - to - positive fundamental situation [45][46]. - PTA - PX: The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA has many maintenance plans in November. The PX - TA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA surplus restricts the processing fee [47][50]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply side has many unexpected events, and the demand side is relatively stable. The long - term supply - demand surplus remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices [52][53]. - Urea: The daily production is expected to remain high in November, but the export policy alleviates the pressure. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [54][55]. - PP: The short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term demand growth is limited. The PP1 - 5 positive spread is supported [57][58]. - PE: It shows a bottom - up trend, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward space is limited [59][61]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: They rebounded at a low level, but the fundamental surplus situation remains, and the rebound height is limited [62][63]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be at a low - level consolidation with upward drivers [65][66]. - Asphalt: The price fell last week, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [67][69]. - Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber: The supply and demand are affected by weather, downstream demand, and inventory. The price may face pressure during the upward process [69][70]. - Glass, Soda Ash, & Caustic Soda: The fundamentals are weak. Soda ash is cost - priced, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda has a weak supply - demand pattern in the long - term [71][72][73]. - Pulp & Offset Paper: They are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations with a slightly downward - shifted center, affected by factors such as spot prices, port inventory, and macro - environment [74][75]. - Logs: The price and inventory data are provided. It is recommended to consider long - term strategies such as 01 - 03 reverse spreads [76]. - Propylene: It is expected to fluctuate, with the supply side being the main source of price fluctuations [78]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The near - term pressure is large, and the far - term supply may be affected by policies. It is recommended to wait and see and participate in reverse spreads appropriately [81][83]. - Oilseeds: The USDA report's bullish effect was less than expected. The domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [84][85][86]. - Oils: The USDA report was disappointing, and the oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the upward opportunities of the far - month 05 contract [87][88]. - Soybeans: The bullish trend continues with strong capital buying willingness, and the supply structure has changed [89][90]. - Corn & Starch: The prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom, with limited one - way upward movement. The corn supply has converged, and the starch is supported by the raw material price [91][92]. - Cotton: The US cotton production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply pressure is increasing. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but the downstream demand has some resilience [93][94]. - Sugar: The international and domestic sugar market information is provided. Attention should be paid to the performance around 5500 [95][96]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and it is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [97]. - Apples: The recent trend remains strong [98][99]. - Jujubes: The new - season production is still uncertain. The price may have limited downward space during the purchase season, and attention should be paid to the commodity rate and purchase situation [100][101].
金融期货早评-20251117
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-17 03:17