从“日历效应”看转债年末的配置方向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The calendar effect in the convertible bond market results from the multi - dimensional intersection of macro - policy rhythms, micro - capital behaviors, and supply - demand changes. It provides a reference perspective for analyzing the fluctuations in the convertible bond and equity markets [4]. - There are significant "calendar effects" in the convertible bond and equity markets, which are formed by multiple factors such as policy meetings, capital - flow periodic fluctuations, earnings disclosure rhythms, and changes in investors' risk preferences. This offers a time - dimension reference for asset allocation [7]. - At the sector level, the "calendar effect" is related to industry rotation intensity, policy rhythms, and performance disclosure cycles. It can help identify phased allocation opportunities. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on industrial and information technology convertible bonds [8]. - From the perspective of supply - demand rhythms, the price center of convertible bonds is expected to continue rising. The supply - demand pattern of the convertible bond market shows certain seasonal characteristics, and grasping the rhythm changes may help in layout during phased supply - demand relaxation windows [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodically Appearing "Calendar Effect" - The "calendar effect" refers to the statistically repeatable return deviations or behavior patterns in the securities market within specific time cycles. The research focuses on the performance of A - share and convertible bond main indices from early 2018 to October 24, 2025 [18]. - In the weekly calendar effect, there is a "Monday strong" phenomenon. Mid - and large - cap indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500, as well as the CSI Convertible Bond Index, show a "Wednesday weak" feature, while small - and mid - cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 show a "Friday weak" feature. This may be related to the "T + 1" trading mechanism and the influence of public funds [18][21]. - In the monthly performance, the overall performance of major indices in the late part of the month is usually weaker than that in the first and middle parts. The "calendar effect" within a month may be related to the periodic fluctuations of the capital flow. The CSI Convertible Bond market also shows a significant monthly calendar effect [27][30]. 3.2 "Calendar Effect" under Policy Guidelines - Policy releases have certain time rules and rhythms, which are important sources of the A - share market's "calendar effect". Key economic meetings should be highly concerned, such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Central Financial Work Conference [35]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index show certain monthly seasonal characteristics. The risk premium of the market has declined, and the equity market still has relatively high cost - effectiveness. The monthly periodic performance of these indices may be related to the annual policy release rhythm and important meeting arrangements [38][43]. 3.3 "Calendar Effect" from the Perspective of Financial Reports - The equity market shows periodic stock - price fluctuations around financial report releases. After the annual report season, the performance of small - and mid - cap indices weakens, while the large - cap style is dominant at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Different sectors have different performances during and after the annual report performance disclosure period [45][47]. 3.4 "Calendar Effect" under Risk Preferences - Changes in risk preferences are a key factor driving the calendar effect in the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market is more active in the second and third quarters. The financing - margin trading volume ratio to the total A - share trading volume also shows periodic changes, which may be related to policy release rhythms and corporate earnings disclosure cycles [57][59]. 3.5 Opportunity Identification of the "Calendar Effect" at the Sector Dimension - Since September, the industry rotation intensity has increased. The periods of high rotation intensity are usually in April, August, September, and December, while February, June, October, and November are relatively flat. The narrowing of the conversion premium rate channel may indicate future directional changes in the convertible bond market [67][72]. 3.6 Monthly - Dimension Industry Rotation Rules - In the "Spring Rally" at the beginning of the year (January - February), technology - growth sectors perform prominently. During the annual report performance disclosure period (March - May), defensive sectors perform well. In the mid - year report performance game period (June - July), cyclical and growth sectors resonate. After the mid - year report is released (August - September), most sectors enter a callback. At the end of the year (October - December), there is a style switch and defensive allocation [75][81]. 3.7 Industrial Convertible Bonds Still Have Room for Growth during Supply - Demand Reconstruction - Industrial convertible bonds are a worthy allocation direction in November. Benefiting from the improvement of the supply - demand relationship and the overall contraction of the convertible bond market supply, industrial convertible bonds perform better than in previous years. Although the current valuation is high, it is still attractive, and the convertible bonds have the potential to rise after valuation digestion [85][90]. 3.8 The Information Technology Sector May Continue to Be the Main Line - The information technology sector has a higher probability of strengthening in March, July, and November. Currently, it is in the early stage of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and with policy support and technological iteration, its performance in the equity market may be sustainable. From August, the information technology convertible bond index has gradually recovered, and it may still have performance space from November to December [97].