Group 1: Financial Derivatives - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The technology stocks continue to face pressure, and the stock index is expected to test the support again. The bond market's unilateral trend may be entangled in the short - term [19][21] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - Stock Index Futures: The market remained high - volatile last week, with severe differentiation. Technology stocks are under pressure, and the stock index is expected to test the support. The basis of futures first converged and then expanded, and IC's net short - position increased. Suggested strategies include high - level oscillation, paying attention to the 60 - day moving average support, and appropriate long - position building at low levels; IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; and bullish spread at low levels [19] - Treasury Futures: The 10 - month macro - financial and economic indicators are weak, and the policy expectation has slightly increased. However, the probability of monetary policy strengthening is not high. The bond market's unilateral trend is entangled. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; holding (TL - 3T) positions and trying to go long on the T - contract current - next quarterly spread [21] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, etc. [25][30][34] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - Soybean Meal: The monthly supply - demand report has limited bullishness, and the international soybean is in a high - yield pattern. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; selling wide - straddle options [25] - Sugar: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the international sugar price has risen sharply. The global sugar production increase is being realized, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may be affected by foreign prices in the long - term. Suggested strategies include short - term slightly bullish international sugar price, domestic sugar price range operation; waiting and seeing for arbitrage [30] - Oilseeds and Oils: The palm oil is in the off - season, and the de - stocking is slow. The soybean oil follows the overall trend, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue de - stocking. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing or high - selling and low - buying [34] - Corn/Corn Starch: The CBOT corn futures are down, and the domestic corn spot price is rising, with the futures showing a strong - side oscillation. Suggested strategies include short - term long - position building for the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, waiting and seeing for the 01 - month contract, and waiting for dips for the 05 and 07 - month contracts; narrowing the 01 - month corn - starch spread [36] - Hogs: The overall supply pressure exists, and the pig price is expected to face pressure. Suggested strategies include short - position building; selling wide - straddle options [39] - Peanuts: The spot price is strong, but the short - term is still in the bottom - side oscillation. Suggested strategies include long - position building for the 05 - month contract on dips; 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage; selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [41] - Eggs: The demand is average, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing [48] - Apples: The new - season apple inventory is announced, and the price is stable with a slight increase. The supply is relatively tight, and the price is expected to be strong. Suggested strategies include long - position building on dips [50] - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price oscillates. The new - season cotton supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing [54] Group 3: Black Metals - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The steel price is in the range - side oscillation, and the double - coking coal has support at the bottom, while the iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective [59][62][64] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - Steel: The steel production resumes, and the steel price is in the range - side oscillation. The supply - demand structure suppresses the steel price, but the cost has support. Suggested strategies include range - side oscillation; long - position building on the coil - rebar spread; waiting and seeing [59] - Double - Coking Coal: The bottom has support, and the short - term drive is not obvious. The mid - term may have opportunities for long - position building on dips. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing in the short - term; holding the coking coal 1/5 reverse arbitrage; waiting and seeing [62] - Iron Ore: The market is in a weak state. The supply is high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. Suggested strategies include a bearish approach [64] - Ferroalloys: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price oscillates in the range with cost support. Suggested strategies include bottom - side oscillation; selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [67] Group 4: Non - ferrous Metals - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, etc. [70][73][77] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - Precious Metals: The Fed issued hawkish signals, and the precious metals tumbled. The market will focus on US non - farm data and NVIDIA's performance. Suggested strategies include temporary exit and waiting and seeing [70] - Copper: The short - term oscillates. The Fed's hawkish remarks and supply - demand factors affect the price. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; long - position building at low levels in the long - term [73] - Alumina: Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and beware of the selling pressure driven by the basis. The supply is in surplus, and the price may oscillate at the bottom before production cuts expand. Suggested strategies include short - term bottom - side oscillation; waiting and seeing [77] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Pay attention to this week's economic data, and the fundamentals are still strong. Suggested strategies include realizing profits gradually and maintaining a mid - term bullish view on dips [81] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the market trading activity has declined. [87] - Zinc: It oscillates in a wide range. The domestic mine is tight, and the price may be affected by macro factors. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; holding the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage [92] - Lead: It oscillates in the range. The domestic social inventory is increasing, and the price has limited upward momentum. Suggested strategies include partial profit - taking on short positions; selling out - of - the - money call options [94] - Nickel: The cost is loosening, and the price oscillates downward. The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and the cost support is weakened. Suggested strategies include short - position building on rebounds [97] - Stainless Steel: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price may continue to decline. [100] - Industrial Silicon: It oscillates weakly. The demand is weakening, and the price is in the range of (8500, 9400). Suggested strategies include short - position building on rebounds [102]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251117
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-17 03:33