反弹受限宽幅震荡：长江期货尿素周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea's rebound is limited and is expected to fluctuate widely. The 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1,600 - 1,700 yuan/ton. This is mainly due to the recovery of urea maintenance devices leading to increased daily output, the spread of agricultural fertilizer demand, some support from compound fertilizer production for urea demand, appropriate low - price stocking for off - season storage, the re - accumulation of port inventory, a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts, and the high daily output and high inventory situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Price: On November 14th, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,652 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous week. The average daily price in the Henan urea spot market was 1,594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4][5]. - Basis: The main urea basis first strengthened and then weakened. On November 14th, the main basis in the Henan market was - 58 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-63) - (-33) yuan/ton [4][8]. - Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On November 14th, the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (-77) - (-72) yuan/ton [4][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 83.93%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 72.89%, unchanged from the previous week. The average daily urea output was 19.67 tons. Some maintenance devices in Shanxi and Henan are planned to resume production next week, and supply is expected to increase [4][11]. Cost - The anthracite market continued its upward trend. As of November 13th, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the price center rising 15 yuan/ton from the previous week's closing price [4][15]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 7.91%, and that of gas - based urea was - 14.25%. Due to the strong operation of coal prices at the cost end, the production profit of urea decreased slightly [15]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: The average pre - collection period of major urea producers was 4.1 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 96.4%. Autumn harvest and sowing are underway, agricultural demand is moderately increasing, and off - season storage is stocking at appropriate low prices, resulting in a marginal improvement in urea production and sales. Currently, winter wheat in the north is in the concentrated sowing period, and late rice in the south is in the large - scale harvesting stage [4][19][23]. - Industrial Demand: - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 31.04%, unchanged from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.11 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons from the previous week. Recently, the compound fertilizer production rate has increased, and the inventory reduction speed of finished products has slowed down [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 57.06%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 2,872 tons. It is expected that the operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will fluctuate above 60% next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores have increased, and the demand support for the panel market has been strengthened [27]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 128.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 26.1 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, equivalent to 14,366 tons, an increase of 2,598 from the previous week [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the production reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [4]