豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and soybean oil futures are both in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, the overall supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, but import costs and far - month stocking sentiment support the price. For soybean oil, production has shrunk due to lower factory operating rates, but high inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while import costs and factory price - holding intentions provide support [7][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures - Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The 45th week saw an actual soybean crushing volume of 1.8057 million tons in oil mills, an operating rate of 49.67%, and a soybean meal inventory of 998,600 tons. The high arrival volume of domestic soybeans and relatively sufficient crushing volume maintain a loose supply pattern. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and poor breeding profits suppress consumption enthusiasm. Some bullish expectations in the latest USDA supply - demand report have been digested in advance. However, import cost increases and far - month stocking sentiment support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and breeding demand [7]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the funds were strongly bearish. The M2601 contract might be in a shock - adjustment stage in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, and the funds are relatively bearish. The M2601 contract is expected to slowly move up after short - term shock adjustment, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3180 [10][11]. - Related Data Situation - The report mentions data such as soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][21][24]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures - Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 45th week, the actual production of soybean oil in 125 oil mills was 343,100 tons, and the commercial inventory in key national regions was 1.1572 million tons. The decline in factory operating rates led to a contraction in production, but the high inventory and weak demand limited price increases. Import soybean cost increases and factory price - holding intentions supported the price. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [30]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the funds were relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract might maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the funds are relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [33]. - Related Data Situation - The report mentions data such as soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][47][49][54][58].