商品期货早班车-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Various commodity futures markets show different trends and characteristics, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on market performance, fundamentals, etc. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Market price dropped on Friday, with London gold falling below $4,100/ounce. The US will release multiple economic data, and Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continue to flow in, and inventories in different places change. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level. [1] - Silver: There is a short - squeeze situation. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions. [1] Base Metals - Copper: Price was weak on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the probability of a December interest rate cut is low. Supply is tight, and demand has improved. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [2] - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract fell on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand has slightly improved. Overseas supply disturbances have pushed up prices, but the short - term trend depends on the movement of main funds. [2] - Alumina: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Supply is in surplus, and some factories are overhauling or reducing production. The price is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the short term. [3] - Industrial Silicon: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Current demand is high, but the long - term demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing high prices, or consider selling put options. [3] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - Tin: Price oscillated weakly on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the supply of tin ore is tight. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [4] Black Industry - Rebar Steel: The main contract price rose slightly. Steel supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the hot - rolled coil contract. [5] - Iron Ore: The main contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the iron ore contract. [5] - Coking Coal: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the coking coal contract. [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell on Friday. Supply is shrinking, and demand is growing rigidly. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short term. [6] - Corn: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and some spot prices weakened. Supply is delayed due to weather, and there is a short - term supply - demand tightness, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to sell hedging at high prices. [7] - Oils and Fats: Palm oil prices showed different trends. The supply of Malaysian palm oil is high in the near term and is expected to decrease seasonally in the long term. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy. [7] - Sugar: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar showed different trends. The international market is affected by India's export policy, and the domestic market will follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market or sell call options. [7] - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated narrowly. International data adjustments are negative for cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] - Eggs: Futures and spot prices fell. Supply pressure has decreased, and demand has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] - Pigs: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. [7] - Apples: The main contract price rose last week. Due to extreme weather, the supply of high - quality apples is reduced, and the price is high. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [8] - PVC: The main contract price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is less than expected. It is recommended to short. [8] - PTA: PX and PTA prices have different trends. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing fee in PTA. [8] - Rubber: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to oscillate between 14,500 - 15,500. [9] - Glass: The main contract price fell. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. It is recommended to use a reverse spread or short strategy. [9] - PP: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [9] - MEG: The spot price is given. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract. [9] - Crude Oil: Oil prices oscillated this week due to the game between fundamental negatives and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than expected. [9][10] - Styrene: The main contract price rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply and demand are improving in the short term but are weak in the long term. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term. [10] - Soda Ash: The main contract price fell. Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see. [10]