纯碱周报：成本托底，或支撑纯碱价格-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash market showed a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals presented a situation of weak supply and demand. Although some enterprises' device reduction led to a narrow contraction in supply and manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, high inventory pressure still existed, and the flat terminal demand restricted the upward price space. The relatively strong price of thermal coal at the cost end provided some support for soda ash, but the oversupply pattern did not change substantially, and the market lacked a driving force for a trending rise, continuing the oscillation trend overall. Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies while being vigilant about the low - level cost support risk, paying attention to the spread opportunities between near - and far - month contracts, and considering inter - period arbitrage opportunities after the price rebounds to the resistance level, as well as using the covered call strategy to increase returns when appropriate [8][36][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within the range of 1188 - 1247 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on November 14, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 rose 16 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.32%, closing at 1226 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: As of November 13, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 739,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,600 tons, a decline of 1.01%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 328,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 410,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 73.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.17%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08% [7][9][11]. - Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from the previous Thursday, a decline of 0.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 800,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 907,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 59,200 tons, a rise of 3.59% [7][14]. - Shipment: On November 13, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 746,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.93%, a week - on - week increase of 2.57 percentage points [16]. - Profit: As of November 13, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 23.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - Float Glass Industry Output: As of November 13, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,100 tons, the same as on the 6th. The weekly output of national float glass from November 7 - 13, 2025 was 1.1139 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 0.76% [26]. - Float Glass Industry Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 111,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 33.61%. The inventory days were 27.5 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period [30]. 3.4 Price Changes The report shows the weekly price changes of various products, including thermal coal, raw salt, light and heavy soda ash, float glass, photovoltaic glass, caustic soda, ammonium chloride, and synthetic ammonia. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 40 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.08%, and the price of float glass decreased by 11 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.95% [35].