国新国证期货早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 14, 2025, the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.82%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1958.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures varieties showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international market conditions [2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On November 14, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13216.03 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3111.51 points. The trading volume decreased by 83.9 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on November 14, closing at 4628.14, a decrease of 73.93 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 14, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1700.6, a decrease of 16.3. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1212.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.4 [2][3]. - The downstream acceptance of the fourth round of coke price increases was poor. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream demand-based procurement and weak trading interest [4]. - Recently, Mongolian coal imports increased, and the number of customs clearances remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - India will allow sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than the previous estimate of 2 million tons. In the second half of October, only 46.02% of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was used for sugar production, and the rest was used for ethanol fuel production. Affected by the expected decline in supply from India and Brazil, the US sugar market rose on Friday [4]. - On the night of November 14, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined due to long - liquidation pressure. In the second half of October, sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year to 2.068 million tons, and sugarcane crushing volume increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 31.108 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber market adjusted slightly on November 14. As of November 14, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 158138 tons, a decrease of 4022 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 49695 tons, an increase of 1612 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons [4]. Live Pigs - On November 14, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The number of fertile sows remained high, leading to an increase in live pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms increased market supply. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises gradually recovered, increasing short - term supply pressure and suppressing futures prices [5]. - The demand for live pigs was weak. There was still about half a month until the traditional bacon - curing peak season. Alternative consumption was common, and consumer enthusiasm was low. The catering and tourism industries were weak, and terminal consumption lacked support. Slaughter enterprises had poor sales, and the fresh - meat sales rate declined. Some enterprises stored meat in cold storage, and the frozen - meat inventory rate increased slightly [5]. Soybean Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand report showed that the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in 2025 was 53.0 bushels, and the total output was 4.253 billion bushels, both lower than the September forecast and slightly lower than analysts' expectations. The unmet expectations led to short - term market selling, and the CBOT soybean futures were under pressure. The report maintained the soybean production expectations of Brazil at 175 million tons and Argentina at 48.5 million tons [5]. - On November 14, the M2601 main contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The domestic soybean meal inventory continued to decline and was below 1 million tons. The inventory pressure improved. The提货 volume increased slightly, and the livestock and poultry inventory was large. Soybean meal had a cost - performance advantage, but the soybean and soybean meal inventory was still high. The market expected the supply gap of imported soybeans to be filled, and the upward momentum of the soybean meal market might weaken [5]. Shanghai Copper - Fed officials expressed caution about further interest rate cuts before the release of important economic data, weakening the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. China's economic operation in October was generally stable, and new development drivers continued to grow [5]. - The tight supply (such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia) and weak demand were in a game. The COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the LME inventory was at a low level. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 14, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13445 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 221 lots compared with the previous trading day. On November 15, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. After the US government ended the shutdown, Fed officials had differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut decreased [5]. Iron Ore - On November 14, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, and domestic arrivals also decreased. Iron - water production stopped falling and increased. Steel mills continued to purchase iron ore as needed. Affected by the expected monetary easing from the central bank, iron ore prices fluctuated in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On November 14, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed up 0.1% at 3037 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, and inventory decreased. Road construction projects were coming to an end, and shipments decreased significantly. Terminal demand was weak, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Asphalt prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Logs - On November 14, the 2601 log contract opened at 778, with a low of 778, a high of 791, and closed at 788.5, with a daily reduction of 1618 lots. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs continued to increase, reaching a four - week high. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. Steel - With the cooling and snow in the north, construction intensity decreased significantly, and seasonal demand declined. Although there was still some construction volume in the south, the procurement rhythm slowed down, and market transactions decreased. The rebar market was at a critical point of supply - demand contraction and inventory cycle conversion. Low inventory gave some resilience to prices, and improved macro - expectations provided bottom support [6]. - Terminal users' funds did not improve significantly, and rigid - demand replenishment was the main operation. Speculative demand almost disappeared. In some low - inventory areas, there were shortages of some specifications, supporting the resistance of local spot prices. In the short term, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season was emerging [6]. Alumina - In the raw material sector, some domestic mines resumed production, and the rainy season in Guinea ended, alleviating the tight supply of bauxite. Currently, the operating capacity and production of alumina were high, and the spot price was low, which might affect smelter profits. Some high - cost enterprises might cut production, and the oversupply situation in the domestic market would gradually ease with production control [6]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity was approaching the domestic ceiling, and the demand for alumina remained relatively stable. Overall, the alumina market might be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, and the oversupply situation might improve with production control [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - In the raw material sector, the price rebounded slightly but remained low. The spot price of aluminum was strong, and smelters had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was approaching the industry limit, and the production rate was high. With good profits and high production, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum remained high [6]. - On the demand side, some downstream industries of aluminum products were transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the high aluminum price inhibited downstream purchases to some extent. The demand for electrolytic aluminum might slow down. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market might be in a stage of stable supply and demand, and social inventory was accumulating slightly [6].