国内铂钯供需：铂钯专题报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic platinum and palladium supply mainly comes from imports, domestic mining, and recycling. Imports are the largest source, but the import volume has been decreasing since 2021. Recycling has become an important supplementary source, especially for palladium [5][8]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive catalyst industry has decreased due to the growth of new - energy vehicles, but plug - in hybrid vehicles still require palladium as a catalyst. The demand for platinum in the glass fiber industry has increased significantly, while the demand in the petrochemical industry has declined [9]. - The importance of recycling in the platinum and palladium supply will increase as high - grade ores become scarce, and the domestic recycling volume is expected to continue to grow [41]. Summary by Directory I. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Supply and Demand Overview - Supply: Mainly from imports (nearly three - quarters), domestic mining (a small amount), and recycling (over one - fifth). Recycling sources include catalysts, industrial waste, and jewelry [11]. - Demand: Mainly from the automotive (over half), industrial (nearly one - third), investment, and jewelry (nearly one - tenth) sectors. The rest is for platinum bar investment [11]. - In 2024, the domestic platinum supply was 95.9 tons (down 7.7% from 2023), with imports down 10.4%, recycling up 5.5%, and domestic mining up 52.9%. The demand was 64.4 tons (down 3.1% from 2023), with a new inventory of 31.5 tons [12][16][17]. - In 2024, the domestic palladium supply was 32.4 tons (up 3.1% from 2023), with imports down 42.6%, recycling up 60%, and domestic mining up 4.5%. The demand was 68.9 tons (down 19.4% from 2023), and the inventory decreased by 36.5 tons [17][18]. II. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Mining and Recycling - Mining: In 2024, domestic mined platinum accounted for 2.7% of the domestic platinum supply, and mined palladium accounted for 7.1% of the domestic palladium supply. Although the production increased compared to 2023, it still accounted for a small share [19]. - Recycling: It is an important source of domestic platinum and palladium supply, especially for palladium. In 2024, the domestic platinum recycling volume accounted for 12.1% of the domestic platinum supply, and the palladium recycling volume accounted for 64.2% of the domestic palladium supply [19]. - Global reserves: China's platinum - group metal reserves account for less than 0.1% of the global total. South Africa and Russia are the major reserve - holding countries [23]. - Global production: In 2024, South Africa and Russia were the major producers of platinum and palladium. China's platinum and palladium mine production accounted for nearly 1% of the global total [26][28]. - Domestic recycling growth: Driven by policies promoting automobile trade - ins, the domestic automobile scrap recycling volume increased significantly in 2024, leading to a significant increase in palladium recycling. However, the recycling industry faces challenges such as intensified competition, strict environmental requirements, and difficulties in implementing reverse invoicing [35][37][40]. III. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Imports - Import trend: Although the production from domestic mining and recycling has increased, imports are still the main source. The import volume has been decreasing since 2021, and the export volume is very small [8][42]. - Import types: Platinum is mainly imported as unforged platinum and platinum powder, and palladium is mainly imported as unforged palladium and palladium powder [46]. - Import sources: The main sources of platinum imports are South Africa, Russia, Japan, Switzerland, and Hong Kong, China. The main sources of palladium imports are South Africa, Russia, Taiwan, China, and Japan [48][50]. IV. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Demand - Overall demand: In 2024, the domestic demand for platinum was 64.4 tons (down 3.1% from 2023), and the demand for palladium was 68.9 tons (down 19.4% from 2023). The decline was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of pure - electric vehicles and the slowdown of petrochemical industry capacity [51]. - Automotive catalyst: It is the main downstream consumer of platinum and palladium. In 2024, the consumption of platinum in automotive catalysts was 16.5 tons (down 13.6% from 2023), and the consumption of palladium was 57.7 tons (down 21.7% from 2023). The growth of new - energy vehicles has impacted the demand, but plug - in hybrid vehicles still require palladium [52][54][57]. - Glass industry: In 2024, the glass industry's consumption of platinum was 23 tons (up 13.3% from 2023), becoming the largest downstream consumer of platinum [52][59]. - Other industries: The demand for platinum and palladium in the petrochemical industry has declined. The demand for palladium in the electronics industry has slightly decreased, but future data storage growth may increase palladium consumption. The platinum consumption in the hydrogen production field is still at a low level [60].