供需错配未改，蛋价震荡磨底

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply - demand mismatch in the egg market remains unchanged, and egg prices are oscillating at the bottom. The near - term futures contracts are suppressed by high short - term production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Futures Prices: Last week, the egg futures market showed a differentiated performance. Near - term contracts declined weakly, and far - term contracts reached a new stage high during the week and then fell back. As of last Friday's close, the main egg contract JD2512 was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.26%, and the JD2605 contract was reported at 3477 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.17% [6][15]. - Spot Prices: Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country increased month - on - month. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty or 3.43% month - on - month; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 3.03% month - on - month [20]. - Chick Prices: The average price of commercial chicks in the country last week was 2.76 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick or 0.36% from the previous week, with a year - on - year decline of 25.2%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%, and some are as high as 60% - 70%. Medium and large - scale enterprises maintain rigid replenishment, and the overall egg market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [24]. - Old Hen Prices: Driven by the slight increase in egg prices in the production and sales areas, the price of old hens rebounded slightly last week. The average price of old hens in the sample market was 4.14 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.49% month - on - month [28]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - Laying Hen Inventory: In October, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the inventory in the fourth quarter, but the effect of production capacity reduction is slow. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will hardly fall below 1.3 billion before the end of the year [33]. - Production Area Shipment Volume: The shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month last week. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6186.06 tons, down 1.81% month - on - month and 18.96% year - on - year [37]. - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 631,200, up 0.64% month - on - month, with an average slaughter age of 494 days, with the highest average age being 510 days and the lowest being 480 days [41]. - Demand Side - Sales Volume in Sales Areas: The sales volume of eggs in the sales areas increased month - on - month last week. The sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 6501.44 tons, up 0.21% month - on - month and down 4.91% year - on - year [44]. - Arrival Volume in Sales Areas: In Beijing, the arrival volume was 95 trucks, up 5 trucks or 5.56% month - on - month; in Guangdong, the arrival volume was 580 trucks, down 35 trucks or 6.42% month - on - month [47]. - Old Hen Slaughter Analysis: The total weekly slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises last week was 2.4775 million, an increase of 99,900 or 4.2% from the previous week [48][50]. - Inventory Situation: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.1 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days [54]. - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit: The average breeding cost of laying hens last week was 3.44 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty or 0.29% month - on - month. The breeding profit was - 0.43 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 17.31% month - on - month. Although the breeding profit rebounded slightly, it was still in the loss range [58]. - Related Products - White - Feathered Broilers: The average price of white - feathered broilers in the country last week was 3.45 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month decline of 1.15% and a year - on - year decline of 8.24%; the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.35 yuan per chick, down 0.10 yuan per chick or 2.90% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 22.09% [63]. - 817 Small White Chickens: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan per catty or 0.78% from the previous week [68]. 3.3. Market Outlook The main egg contract encountered obvious resistance near 3240 yuan last week. The futures market lacks supply - demand fundamental support and then started to oscillate and decline. The spot egg price remained between 2.9 - 3.1 yuan per catty, hovering around the feed cost line, and has not significantly stimulated the farmers' willingness to slaughter, resulting in slow production capacity reduction. Therefore, the near - term contracts are suppressed by short - term high production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts still depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - Single - Side Trading: Hold short positions cautiously and continuously monitor the culling progress of the breeding end. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage opportunity. - Options: Wait and see [10][70].