多空交织驱动不显，或将维持震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors with no clear driving force, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to monitor include Sino - US trade relations, anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather conditions in rubber - producing areas, raw material output, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [8][9][84]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 14,955 to 15,415 yuan/ton, showing a slightly bullish and upward trend. As of the close on November 14, 2025, it closed at 15,215 yuan/ton, up 220 points or 1.47% for the week [6][13]. Spot Price - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,070 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from the previous week [17][20]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference, the basis narrowed slightly last week. As of November 14, 2025, the basis was - 415 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both rose slightly last week [24][27]. Important Market Information - The US government ended its longest - ever "shutdown", which boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed signs of weakness, and there were different views within the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. China's October economic data showed a slowdown in growth in multiple indicators, while CPI and PPI showed certain positive changes. The automotive market had mixed performance, with new energy vehicle sales growing and passenger car sales declining in October [28][30][31]. Supply - side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative output was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98%. In September 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries increased by 48,300 tons or 4.89% month - on - month, with varying production trends in different countries [39][44][48]. Demand - side Situation - As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.68%, up 0.01% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.46%, down 0.96% from the previous week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [54][58][61]. Inventory - side Situation - As of November 14, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,470 tons, down 10,500 tons from the previous week. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0563 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the total inventory in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.40% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the global natural rubber production areas are in the peak season, with cost support. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly. On the demand side, the operating rate of tire enterprises changed little last week, with continued inventory accumulation. Terminal passenger car sales declined in October, and tire exports showed a mixed trend. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the futures exchange inventory decreased last week, while the social and Qingdao total inventories increased slightly [82][83]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view is that the natural rubber futures main contract is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The operation strategy is to maintain a range - trading approach for single - side trading, consider going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [86][88].