沥青：出货放缓，弱势震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The asphalt market is experiencing a slowdown in shipments and is in a weak and volatile state. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On November 17, 2025, the closing price of BU2512 was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 0.69% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,057 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The closing price of BU2601 was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 0.26% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,039 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The trading volume of BU2512 was 6,726 lots, an increase of 304 lots, and the open interest was 18,902 lots, a decrease of 636 lots. The trading volume of BU2601 was 267,916 lots, a decrease of 1,939 lots, and the open interest was 192,751 lots, a decrease of 1,021 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 30,110 lots, with no change [1]. - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 12) was - 39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan compared to the previous day. The 12 - 01 inter - period spread was 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan compared to the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread was - 190 yuan/ton, with no change. The East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,010 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,129 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,268 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,330 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,342 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,401 yuan/ton [1]. - Refinery Data: As of November 13, the refinery operating rate was 34.58%, an increase of 1.08% compared to November 10. The refinery inventory rate was 29.48%, an increase of 1.03% compared to November 10 [1]. Market Information - Social Warehouse Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 114.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to November 10. Most social warehouses in major domestic regions decreased, with the Shandong region showing a significant reduction due to the recovery of terminal demand, some projects being in the final stage, slower inventory - entry by traders, and more consumption of inventory for shipments [8]. - Factory Warehouse Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factory warehouses was 69.1 million tons, an increase of 0.4% compared to November 10. The factory warehouses in South China and Southwest China showed significant inventory accumulation because the main refineries in the regions maintained stable production, but the market trading atmosphere was average, and refinery shipments slowed down [11].